The Beautiful Truth Show - 11th March, 2010
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Ken Ring's Recent Track Record
Latest Sunspot Report from theMaverick forecaster Ken was right as rain
By Breda Heffernan - Monday August 24 2009
AN unorthodox weather watcher who uses the moon and the tides to create long-term forecasts is celebrating after his predictions for the Irish summer have largely come to pass.
New Zealander Ken Ring correctly predicted the summer's mini-heatwave at the start of June and was on the money when he calculated that July would be a washout.
His achievement is all the more remarkable as some of the experts have got their long-term forecasts spectacularly wrong. The UK Met Office was left with egg on its face after trumpeting a "barbecue summer" in April only for the UK to see its wettest July on record.
Mr Ring is an Auckland-based professional weather watcher and made his predictions about this summer's weather on Marian Finucane's show on RTE Radio 1.
While his novel means of forecasting have been greeted with some scepticism, he was largely on the mark.
"I think I've done quite well, or at least the farmers tell me so," he said. "Of course, weather forecasting is not an exact science and so the best we can come up with are trends that have a few days' leeway on either side. For instance, I did say summer in Ireland for 2009 was never going to be all that hot -- maximum temperatures may not exceed 25 degrees."
What Ken said:
June: Many areas will be dry for the first half and temperatures will be above 20C, unsettled for the second half.
July: Mainly wet month for all. Parts of the north, west and east will have chances of dry days only between July 12 and 17.
August: A wet month for all. The east has a chance of dry windows from August 4 to 9 and 21 to 25. The south will see some sun from 25 to 30.
What happened:
June: First week was largely dry and sunny with temperatures well above normal. Second week was cool and windy with occasionally heavy rain. Rest of the month was unsettled with showers and some thundery downpours.
July: Wettest July for over 50 years in many places. Very wet at some weather stations in the east and west on July 13 and 14, but July 12, 15, 16 and 17 saw practically no rain.
August: Started out very wet, particularly in the south. Almost a perfect score for August 4 to 9 in the east.
Link
vigilant ham radio enthusiasts:
PREVIOUS INTERVIEW:Propagation Forecast Bulletin #9 de K7RA:
Seattle, WA March 5, 2010
To all radio amateurs
Two new sunspot groups appeared on March 1, numbered 1052 and 1053. The total number of sunspot groups appearing over the last month is eleven.
Looking at our 3-month moving average of daily sunspot numbers, the latest for December-January-February is 22.4, for the period centered on January. The average daily sunspot number for the month of February was 31. The fact that this is higher than the latest 3-month average is a welcome trend.
The current 3-month average centered on January 2010 is very close to the 3-month average centered on January 2007, which was 22.7. That moving average has not been as high since. In fact, the closest it has been was February 2007, at 18.5. It was all downhill from there, and that average was below 10 from September 2007 through October 2009. It now looks like we saw three minimums, which is why it was so easy to err when trying to locate the bottom. Several times we hit some low number, decided that things were improving, and then a few months later hit it again.
The three minimums were 2.97 in October 2007, 1.1 in August 2008, and 1.5 in March 2009.
The three month moving average centered on January 2008 through January 2010 was 8.5, 8.4, 8.4, 8.9, 4.9, 3.7, 2, 1.1, 2.5, 4.5, 4.4, 3.6, 2.2, 2, 1.5, 2, 4.2, 5.2, 4, 4, 4.6, 7.1, 10.2, 15.2 and 22.4.
The ARRL International SSB DX Contest is this weekend, and it isn't really certain whether there will be sunspots visible through the whole of the contest. Sunspot groups 1051, 1052 and 1053 will soon rotate over the Sun's western limb. Looking at images from the STEREO spacecraft ( http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/), there is a magnetically complex area visible in the upper left quadrant facing Earth, but no sunspot has emerged there. Looking beyond the horizon the only really active area (bright white contrasted against green) appears to be emerging from the far side blind spot in the southern hemisphere. That could be five days away from emergence over the eastern horizon.
The blind spot of the STEREO mission incrementally recedes. On March 1, 88.1% of the Sun was visible to the craft, on April 1, 88.5% should be visible, and 90% visibility will occur some time in June. For the first of December 2010, January 2011 and February 2011 visibility should be 97.4, 98.7 and 99.8%. After that, the two spacecraft continue their journey, but the blind spot shifts to the Earth-side of the Sun, which of course we can see directly.
Earlier this week the prediction for the weekend showed higher activity. Go to http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html and click on March 1. Note the solar flux values for today, tomorrow and Sunday (March 5-7) show predicted solar flux at 84, 86 and 90, with flux staying at 90 through March 13.
Now click on March 4, which was the latest report available by the time this bulletin was written early Friday morning, and for the same period it has shifted way down to 82 straight through March 12. You can go back to that site to get the updated forecast after 2000z (but often after 2100z) today, and on subsequent days.
The same forecast shows quiet geomagnetic conditions with planetary A index of 5 until March 15 and 16, when it rises slightly to 8 and 7. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions for March 5 through 11.
K9LA pointed out a problem with the description of effective sunspot numbers from nwra.com in last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP008.
At http://www.nwra.com/spawx/ssne24.html we see a plot of SSNe, or effective sunspot number, which is derived from multiple ionospheric sounders. The ionosonde data used is foF2, which is the critical frequency of the F2 layer. It is the maximum frequency that can be reflected back from the F2 layer by a vertically incident beam. The smoother heavy line in the upper SSNe graph uses 24 hours of foF2 data, and the lighter and less smooth line uses 6 hours of data. Using a longer period of data makes the 24 hour line smoother, because it behaves more like a moving average, responding less to short duration changes.
This page, http://www.nwra.com/spawx/ssne.html gives a more formal definition of the derivation of effective sunspot number. http://www.nwra.com/spawx/comp.html shows a comparison of SSNe, actual observed sunspot number, and SSNf, a sunspot number derived from the 10.7 cm solar flux. The formula toward the bottom shows * as multiplication, and SSNf**2 I believe means SSNf raised to the second power, a way of showing exponents using conventional characters.
The formula shows a relationship between solar flux and SSNf, but is not set up to solve for SSNf using solar flux. So to test it I entered some sunspot numbers into a spreadsheet, and then calculated 10.7 cm flux using the formula. The relationship came out roughly in line with the same values entered into W6ELprop, which always shows flux values when entering sunspot numbers, and sunspot numbers when flux values are used.
W6ELprop introduces a variation based on date, because of our elliptical orbit around the Sun. At http://tinyurl.com/ks8tvn you can see a column for observed solar flux, and another for adjusted solar flux. The adjusted value factors for variations due to Earth's orbit. Note certain dates when the adjusted and observed values are equal. Using those dates with W6ELprop and entering sunspot numbers results in flux values equal to data produced by the formula referenced above.
http://www.eham.net/articles/23487
http://PredictWeather.com/
A fascinating guest, Ken Ring- "Weatherman" forecasts weather months on advance
whilst other Meteorologists claim that the weather patterns cannot be forecasted
more than 5 days in advance. Forecasts are based on the likely pattern of atmospheric-tidal
movements, winds and wind changes plus high and low pressure zones based on
correlations of past, and future lunar orbits and phases. Also http://www.mathman.co.nz/
Ken also debunks Global Warming and the alleged depleting Ozone layer.
LISTEN TO INTERVIEW:
http://www.breakfornews.com/audio/Insid ... 060308.mp3
ARTICLES BY KEN:
A Case for The Moon?
The Moon has about one sixth of the Earth’s gravitational force. From only a couple of hundred thousand miles away, changes in the Moon's orbital patterns are going to have major effects on Earth. Simply stated, changes in the Moon’s movement changes our weather.. ... more
http://predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=16
A basic look at weather cycles
The experts called 18 May a once-in-100-year event. The Tauranga rains caused millions of dollars worth of damage. But half a month before on 3 May in the same place there had been another so-called once-in-100 year dumping. Is this all predictable? If so..what is the cycle..? ... more
http://predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=31
Holes In The Ozone-Layer?
Ozone is replenished every day worldwide wherever the sun meets warm rising air. There is a big area over the South Pole with less ozone than elsewhere. But this hole is gone in December, when NZ has its summer. So why all the fuss about ozone-depletion? more
http://predictweather.com/ozone%20depletion/index.asp
Enron & The Kyoto Protocol
It is perhaps forgotten especially amongst the greenies how the treaty was born in the corridors of very big business. The story is one of corruption and greed.. ... more
http://predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=36
The Nonsense That Is Global Warming
Some years ago a British newspaper arranged a square-off between a meteorologist, an astrologer and a woman with corns, to see who could best predict the weather. The woman with corns won.
In almost every newspaper around the world and at least once a week, some report surfaces suggesting we stay worried in the light of latest figures and analyses. Not only is Global Warming occurring, we are assured, but it is now accelerating at some alarming rate and pretty soon the poles will have all melted, the sealevels will have risen and all low-lying atolls and seaside villages will be covered over with this calamitous rising tide. And apparently this gigantic catastrophe is due to human behaviour.
We are informed that if our wicked CFC and CO2-producing ways continue, we will be doomed as a civilisation. Today we are so buffeted by what is put forth as irrefutable evidential science as to the nature of the so-called problem, that we don't even think to question it on any basic level. What is still essentially viewpoints and nothing more, based on tiny sample data and extrapolated, is now promoted as scientific fact, regardless of the lack of real evidence. The voices of the many diligent scientists calling for real hard evidence are drowned out by those who have the ear of a worldwide media hungry for sensational and emotive headlines. ...more
http://predictweather.com/global_warming/index.asp
LISTEN TO INTERVIEW:
http://www.breakfornews.com/audio/Insid ... 060308.mp3
....everyone was against him. He fought them for 30 years and last year his work was finally recognised and he has now been praised and accepted by his opponents after all these years, because he was right!