Tehran bourse:a private market?

Robert · Joined: 07 Feb 2006 Posts: 391

Some interesting points about the forthcoming bourse.
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http://www.energybulletin.net/13225.html

Where will oil trade: New York? London? Tehran?
By NeonTetra, sandcastle in the tide
Published February 28, 2006

Jerome a Paris has written an unusually forceful article denouncing the many
doom and gloom scenarios that predict that an Iranian Oil Bourse (IOB) will
bring the US dollar to its knees and starve western nations of oil. An article
with a similar conclusion was written by Iranian academic Bahman Aghai Diba for
the Persian Journal. These pieces insist that Iran lacks the legal and
financial infrastructure to host international trading in oil.

These writers are missing a key point. They are assuming that oil will continue
to trade freely, albeit perhaps at a much higher price. They assume that
liquidity and transparancy will endure in the oil markets. But there may come a
time when geologically driven oil shortages dry up liquidity in the oil markets.
There may come a time when politically driven resource competition creates
shortages in the oil markets. Liquidity will disappear when sellers in New York
and London cannot guarantee delivery. It stands to reason that commodity
markets function best, with great liquidity, when there is a plentiful supply of
goods to trade. If there is a shortage, much less of that commodity will end up
on the auction block. This is especially true for strategically critical
commodities such as oil.

It hardly needs to be repeated that China is the most powerful buyer of
commodities, and it has the biggest checkbook. Russia and Iran are key
suppliers. These three countries are now the big shots at the poker table. The
big shots do not have any commitment to open markets. They prefer backroom
deals, made for strategic advantage, rather than securing the best price. One
reason oil producing nations like Iran and Russia would have for keeping oil
markets closed would be to exclude buyers they don't like. For example
Americans.

America can still acquire oil, but only to the extent that other nations agree
to finance its debt. Or America can use its military to try to secure its oil
supply by threat, invasion or occupation. The American military itself consumes
vast amounts of oil. Reducing American oil supplies would increase other
nations' security (the nations that feel threatened by us) more than any
military upgrade they could achieve. Note that it is in neither Russia's nor
China's interest to cut off American oil supplies, nor bankrupt the USA. What
is in their interest is that we are no longer a military super power.

It seems logical that China, Iran, and Russia will choose to set up an oil
trading bourse, in Iran or elsewhere, that trades in Euros, or perhaps gold.
Access to their market will be by invitation only. Private speculators, rude
Americans, and those who don't honor Islam will be among the many who will be
shut out of the party. Security, dispute resolution, and payment and delivery
issues will not be settled in courts of law, but by the blessing and decree of
the KGB, or the Iranian Revolutionary Council, or some such body.

Whether or not the Iranian Oil Bourse gets off the ground, don't expect the USA
and Britain to be able to control oil trading much longer. They simply don't
have the oil to trade.

Jerry Fletcher · Joined: 21 Jan 2006 Posts: 837 Location: Studio BS

Robert · Joined: 07 Feb 2006 Posts: 391

Ha,Jerry you're right,a great steaming pile of horse......

Very Happy

sure the good folks at global rescratch can come up with a even more fearful reason for the delay. Wink

meanwhile you'll like my nyse daily post....same vein of humour!
Robert

Jerry Fletcher · Joined: 21 Jan 2006 Posts: 837 Location: Studio BS

jorgea · Joined: 20 Jan 2012 Posts: 2 Location: burbank ca

Rom · Joined: 28 Feb 2007 Posts: 417

Interesting article. One big unknown is how dependent is dollar upon oil, another unknown is how much oil is there in Alaska .. more than Saudi Arabia?

Southpark Fan · Posted: Sun Feb 12, 2012 9:15 am Post subject:

I would say the US gov is interested in something...

'The Worldwide control of humanity's economic, social and political activities is under the helm of US corporate and military power. Underlying this process are various schemes of direct and indirect military intervention. These US sponsored strategies ultmately consist in a process of global subordination.'

Photo: Air Base of Diego Garcia located in the Indian Ocean
Credit: http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Diego_Garcia_%28satellite%29.jpg

Related: http://www.ts2.pl/en/Internet-in-the-Middle-East-for-US-Army-Soldiers