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#MARIA #IRMA -Live Blog- | AFTERMATH LATEST
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Fintan
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:23 pm    Post subject: #MARIA #IRMA -Live Blog- | AFTERMATH LATEST Reply with quote


There is just emerging and credible evidence that Hurricane #IRMA
will make landfall just some miles to the west of downtown Miami.


The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has the best
forecast model in the world
based upon skill scores. During Hurricane
Harvey, it beat the human forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.

This forecast system has superior hardware to run its calculations and it
better assimilates real-time data—observations from weather networks
around the world, atmospheric soundings, reconnaissance aircraft, and
much more—into its calculations.

And this most accurate model is predicting a direct hit on Miami:


So if the Hurricane does not track upstate off the east coast and
instead comes ashore over Miami then that's BIG trouble.

Emmy Award Winning Storm Chaser of over 35 years, Jeff Piotrowski
is down in Miami and today Thursday he just warned that if #IRMA
does come ashore to the west of Miami or over Downtown, then we
will witness the greatest natural disaster in US history.

He warned people to get out of hi-rise buildings in Miami and to also
get out of the area from the Keys all the way to West Palm Beach.




Our assessment is that there is now an unacceptable risk in remaining
in south Florida and we advise immediate evacuation or a move to a
secure location with food and independent long duration power supply.

6PM EST THURSDAY UPDATE - Fox News weather has just discussed the
European model landfall West of Miami, says still unknown until Saturday.

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Last edited by Fintan on Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:15 pm; edited 5 times in total
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and i



Joined: 13 Sep 2006
Posts: 300

PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stay safe down there! Best of luck.
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skinters



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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's not all about Florida, and Miami ffs.

Don't forget the rest of the islands already getting battered.
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Fintan
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
skinters: Don't forget the rest of the islands already getting battered.

U bet. My Fla warning v much informed by what's happening to 'em.
The Turks and Caicos facing huge winds and a 20 foot storm surge, ffs!

Quote:
Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi 2 hours ago

Said yesterday this would back down to a 4 BUT COME BACK.
BELIEVE LOWEST PRESSURE YET TO COME.
Unlike Rita,Katrina, will intensify to coast


Bastardi says that this storm will regain Cat 5 status before landfall
because it will be crossing currently very warm waters around the keys.

This sucker is set to swallow South Florida.

Quote:
Eric Fisher
@ericfisher 8 hours ago
Yep, still bad. Really bad.
Past the time of hoping for a change...
#Irma is coming to South Florida.




Latest on Guardian Live Blog

Latest Update from Jeff:

Quote:

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Last edited by Fintan on Sat Sep 09, 2017 11:14 am; edited 1 time in total
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Fintan
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Latest Update from Jeff:

Quote:

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Fintan
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 9:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote


L A T E S T
T R A C K S
CLICK TO PLAY

MORE WESTWARD TRACK
OVER WARM WATERS POWERS
IRMA UP TO CAT 5








Joe Bastardi‏
BigJoeBastardi
29m minutes ago

European [model shows Irma] does not make final landfall
till after 8 PM tomorrow evening. Plenty of time over 30 1C
water, with ideal dynamics, to roar back



I'm leaving South Beach FL now headed for Marco Island.
Jeff Piotrowski
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1YpJkmVobBjKj




GUARDIAN LIVE BLOG >

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Peter



Joined: 26 Jun 2007
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:12 pm    Post subject: Irma la dure. Reply with quote

A significant issue, now, is the storm surge from Irma on the SW coast of Florida. 5 to 9 ft. (above ground) of sea water with battering waves, will destroy pretty much any 1 or 2 story building.

This will also extend up to Tampa-St-Pete and perhaps even as far north as the panhandle.

Irma will leave a lasting impression on Florida. It is gonna hurt!

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Fintan
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Peter
This will also extend up to Tampa-St-Pete and perhaps even as far north as the panhandle.
Irma will leave a lasting impression on Florida. It is gonna hurt!


Gonna be some weekend alright. Epecially Tampa.....

WRITTEN BACK IN JULY, 2017 THIS ARTICLE
LAYS OUT HUGE RISKS NOW FACING TAMPA

Quote:
RED AREA SHOWS EXTENT OF 20 FEET STORM SURGE



RED AREA SHOWS EXTENT OF 20 FEET STORM SURGE



Tampa Bay’s coming storm
The area is due for a major hurricane, and it is not prepared.
If a big one scores a direct hit, the damage would likely surpass Katrina.


Story by Darryl Fears, July 28, 2017

Tampa Bay is mesmerizing, with 700 miles of shoreline and some of the finest white sand beaches in the nation. But analysts say the metropolitan area is the most vulnerable in the United States to flooding and damage if a major hurricane ever scores a direct hit.

A Boston firm that analyzes potential catastrophic damage reported that the region would lose $175 billion in a storm the size of Hurricane Katrina. A World Bank study called Tampa Bay one of the 10 most at-risk areas on the globe.

Yet the bay area — greater Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater — has barely begun to assess the rate of sea-level rise and address its effects.

The sea in Tampa Bay has risen naturally throughout time, about an inch per decade. But in the early 1990s, scientists say, it accelerated to several inches above normal, so much that recent projections have the bay rising between six inches and more than two feet by the middle of the century and up to nearly seven feet when it ends. On top of that, natural settling is causing land to slowly sink.

By a stroke of gambler’s luck, Tampa Bay hasn’t suffered a direct hit from a hurricane as powerful as a category 3 or higher in nearly a century. Tampa has doubled down on a bet that another won’t strike anytime soon, investing billions of dollars in high-rise condominiums along the waterfront and shipping port upgrades and expanding a hospital on an island in the middle of the bay to make it one of the largest in the state.

Once-sleepy St. Petersburg has gradually followed suit, adorning its downtown coast with high-rise condominiums, new shops and hotels. The city is in the final stages of a plan to build a $45 million pier as a major attraction that would extend out into the bay.

Worried that area leaders weren’t adequately focused on the downside of living in a tropic, the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council reminded them of the risks by simulating a worst-case scenario hurricane, a category 5 with winds exceeding 156 mph, to demonstrate what would happen if it entered the Gulf of Mexico and turned their way.

The fictitious Phoenix hurricane scenario projects that wind damage would destroy nearly half a million homes and businesses. About 2 million residents would require medical treatment, and the estimated death toll, more than 2,000, would top the number of people who perished from Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana and Mississippi.

Florida’s most densely populated county, Pinellas, could be sliced in half by a wave of water. The low-lying county of about a million is growing so fast that there’s no land left to develop, and main roads and an interstate connecting it to Tampa get clogged with traffic even on a clear day.

“If a hurricane 4 or 5 hit us,” St. Petersburg City Council Chairman Darden Rice said, referring to the two highest category storms, “there’s no doubt about it. The plan is you’d better get out of Dodge.”

Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn’s warning was even starker. Standing outside City Hall last year, he described what would happen if a hurricane as small as a category 3 with 110 mph to 130 mph winds hit downtown.

“Where you’re standing now would be 15 feet under water,” he said.

Video simulations of hurricanes that strafed Florida but missed Tampa Bay look like an epic game of dodgeball.

“It’s like we’re in this sweet spot. It’s like we’re blessed somehow, protected,” said Allison Yeh, a planner for Hillsborough County in Tampa.

The last direct hit from a category 3 in 1921 left the area in ruins, but few people lived there then. A single death was recorded.

Now, with 4 million residents and gleaming new infrastructure, the stakes are higher, and Yeh and her fellow planners are wary. They know a major hurricane like one of several that barely missed the bay in recent years would have a devastating effect.

There are few hurricane-proof buildings in the bay area. One is a gallery, the Salvador Dali Museum in downtown St. Petersburg with 18-inch-thick concrete walls and pressured glass supported by steel frames that could withstand anything the aforementioned storms could dish out. The building supervisor could stand at the windows and watch a hurricane pass as though it were on the Weather Channel.

The museum is better protected than one of the largest hospitals in the state, Tampa General, which sits on Davis Island, a spit of earth that was dredged from muck at the bottom of the bay a few years after the last hurricane hit. Buckhorn said a category 3 hurricane would level the island’s houses, including his own.

Tampa General has a thorough evacuation plan, indoor generators that can supply energy for several days, and safe floors with reinforced walls and windows.

But parts of two bridges that lead to and from the island would be cut off by floodwaters, a concern of officials in spite of assurances by the hospital’s managers that there’s a contingency for that, too.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environment/tampa-bay-climate-change/

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Fintan
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This may very well look dangerous, but that's just because
these guys are driving around in the Florida keys a couple
of miles up from Key West.

Other than that, it's quite safe:



8:30AMest US 1 Northbound Impassible
https://twitter.com/GadiNBC/status/906860068372717568

Storm Surge starts at Key West:
https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/906840530532929537

Latest Radar:
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/key-west-fl/weather-radar-r1h?play=1

Guardian Blog:
http://bit.ly/2xoasKZ

Jeff Piotrowski: Sunday Dawn Periscope Video
https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1RDxlmqqPDlKL

Water Already Sucked out of Tampa Bay @ noon:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJX3ITZVAAAqhxL.jpg

Water surge in Miami
https://twitter.com/mikeseidel/status/906909154509500416
https://twitter.com/ann_keil/status/906904566486257664


REFRESH THIS PAGE FOR UPDATES



Jeff Piotrowski: LIVE NAPLES / MARCO ISLAND @ 3:50 est
https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1LyxBEydlDnJN



Jeff's feed has now gone down. He was parked up
in the shelter of a gas station south east of Naples.
The eye wall still passing his location at the time.

LIVE IN THE EYE -NAPLES CENTER
@ 4:45pmEST:

https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1MnGnmvYgmjKO
@ 5:40pmEST
https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1MnxnmvRVmyJO

This is what it looks like further north in Naples.
Horizontal rain. Gusts up 160 with sustained 130:
https://twitter.com/Edpilkington/status/906978108925992961
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Fintan
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote


Above Jeff Piotrowski with a brief Naples area update.
He was heading down the Keys to do an emergency evac, but 41 is
blocked going into Everglades City - so that's the end of that bid:
https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1lDxLkrEyqyJm

Keys were really hammered, and do you remember our intrepid duo of
testosterone-fueled storm chasers? Their Twitter feed went dark yesterday.

Well, news surprisingly, they're both still alive!

Simon Brewer
@SimonStormRider
Apocalyptic scene over Keys, especially Big Pine & Bahia Honda Keys:
literally dug ourselves out, made path for others to follow



The most extreme damage was from Sugarloaf Key to Marathon.
The massive surge caused significant damage there, along with the winds.




https://twitter.com/JustonStrmRider
https://twitter.com/SimonStormRider

This report features footage from the upper Keys:



But the serious damage was much further
down the Keys in Marathon and Big Pine:


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Peter



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:26 am    Post subject: Jose can you see? Reply with quote

And just what the US needs, a cat2+ hurricane making a loop-de-loop after skirting the lesser Antilles and taking aim on Florida/Carolinas.


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Fintan
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

#MARIA UPDATE

Quote:
Ryan Maue‏ @RyanMaue
2 hours ago
Caribbean islands incl. Puerto Rico are under threat from #HurricaneMaria ...
signs it will recurve away from U.S. East coast.


Click for Track Animation:

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