• How the dollar becoming strong, may actually kill the dollar
• A devalued Yuan makes it almost impossible for the Fed to raise rates.
• The Chinese just reported a stockpile of over 1,800 tons of gold.
So how much do they have?
• Gold is back in backwardation, indicating a rising level of global fear.
Disastrous Day That Confidence Broke!
Bill Holter - August 25, 2015
Today was all about credibility and confidence. “They” could not allow what actually happened because it showed weakness. Or better yet, it exposed their inability to hold it all together.
Today was not about margin calls, Mom and Pop selling or even mutual fund/pension plans. No, you saw “algorithms” go wild today and it turned out the algos were bigger than the PPT. Huge mistake by the PPT because just as in a street fight, “weakness” provokes aggression and now the algos know how powerful their punch is! They could not let “it happen” …they did, HUGE MISTAKE!
After the close, the muppets at CNBC are already pleading for help from the Fed. Jim summed it up when he penned this:
“A market break like today (called recalibration by financial TV money bunnies) in which the PPT was defeated screams “ultimate deflation.”
The immediate implication of “Ultimate Deflation” among the unwashed and not knowing is bearish on gold.
The basis for our thesis on gold and major new highs in metals is “Ultimate Deflation” and how global central banks will react.”
For those who do not understand, the Fed (as I mentioned yesterday and previously) has a zero percent chance of raising rates and will in fact be forced into further QE. The “Ultimate Deflation” we are experiencing guarantees that central banks ALL OVER THE WORLD will be forced to print and debase furiously! It is not the current action that will kill you…it is the REACTION from the central banks!
Today was a “warning shot” to start, maybe even a shot INTO the bow as the close stunk up the joint. I still expect some sort of stabilization where investors (lead on by the CNBC muppets) will breathe a very short term sigh of relief. Whether this lasts only a day or two or several weeks, I have no idea. I would suggest that any stability should be used as an exit!
Speaking of “exits”, if I were the Chinese or other large holders of Treasuries, I would be using the current strength as my exit plan. Capital poured into Treasuries in a safe haven bid, I would use these bids and hit them with everything I had. In fact, I believe we may very soon see the day when the U.S. Treasury market gets hit hard along with stocks and the dollar. This will be your clue the “end” is quite imminent. WATCH TREASURY YIELDS, when they inexplicably begin to rise, understand what they are telling you!
Lastly, this is not about China, it is not a “correction”, it is not because of a “slowdown”. This is the beginning of the Great Credit Unwinding and will take EVERYTHING “credit” with it. Do you understand what “everything credit” actually is?
In today’s world, anything and everything financial (including real estate) is credit. EVERYTHING is now credit! By now I probably should not have to explain what is “not credit”. Simply put, “real physical gold and silver unencumbered”.
You will soon see this as the credibility of central banks will be called into question. The viability of derivatives will be called into question. The solvency of sovereigns (including the U.S. Treasury) will be called into question. The entire global fiat system will be called into question! The conversation may go something like this;
You have been weighed. You have been measured.
And you have absolutely…
Been found wanting!
Welcome to the New World. God save you, if it is right that he should do so.
It has been and is all about “confidence”. Confidence has been the ONLY thing holding the Ponzi scheme together. The PPT allowed confidence a very black and swollen eye today. Nothing “credit” on the planet will stand upon the knockout of confidence!
“Confoundingly to me, people have come to be quite accepting of the value attached by fiat to these pieces of paper we call currency,” says Jim Grant, who’s the editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer and the author of The Forgotten Depression: The Crash That Cured Itself.
“Are prices meant to be imposed from on high, or discovered by individuals acting spontaneously in markets? The readers and viewers of Reason known the answer to that but they’re regrettably in the minority."
Grant sat down with Reason magazine editor-in-chief Matt Welch on Tuesday to discuss the underlying causes of the recent market turbulence, why we don’t really “have interest rates anymore,” and how the classic jazz song “It’s Only a Paper Moon” provides a fitting metaphor for the equities market.
_________________ Minds are like parachutes.
They only function when open.
The idea behind hikes is that a relative increase in rates for the US , relatively counts as a decrease in rates for the EU, allowing Goldman Sachs to have its effective QE in Europe and China, especially since as of late the Yuan has been strengthening against the dollar.
The idea is to build the dollar up as a safe haven of last resort, until they pull the rug out from under that too. Meanwhile the stronger dollar will pressure the devaluing currency spheres to sell back their Gold after just having bought it, at some lower price. The price of Gold should go down before it rapidly spikes up.
Then a "reset" will just wipe out the recently expanded markets and the US domestic market, leaving the US Anglo Sphere with all the wealth, and alot of places to spend it. _________________ "Come on baby, just the TTiP. I'll Quantitatively ease it in"
Yves makes some points about the insanity of banking culture
Zeitgeist Watch: Wall Street Suicides and the Fear of Falling
It may seem hard to work up concern for a comparatively small number of suicides among the young and privileged, particularly when personal tragedies that result from economic stress, like the rise in suicides in Greece, haven’t gotten anywhere the same level of media attention. But one can argue that desperate acts among the poor and struggling are tragic but normal, but desperate acts by those who have far more in the way of options and resources, seem far more perplexing.
The handwringing among the chieftans of Wall Street firms about the rash of deaths has to be taken with a fistful of salt. Job loss (or even mere setbacks) can kick off a cascade of bad events that leads to death: suicide, drug overdose, or a car accident that may not be an accident if there’s a family left to collect life insurance proceeds.
But the chain of personal failure is generally attenuated enough so that the person or institution that knocked the first domino over is far enough away from the tragic outcome as to be a mere part of a long causal chain. It looks quite different when a young man that relatives and friends see far too seldom recognize that he’s not holding up well under unrelenting pressure leaps to his death hours before a deadline he fears he can’t make, as 22 year old Goldman banker Sarvshreshth Gupta did in April.
But truth be told, Wall Street has had jobs that made demands like that for decades. The people who wind up in those positions are so deeply invested in the idea of career success that the consequences of failure have always loomed much larger than they really were; otherwise, it would be well-nigh impossible to motivate people to work so hard in the first place. So what if anything is different now?
It’s hard to understand what this world is like unless you’ve been in it. While most people have endured periods of extreme time pressure and personal stress, the mix in certain sought-after finance roles is particularly daunting. And that then feeds an abuser/abused cycle: since the older generation went through this guantlet, they see it as perfectly reasonable to expect it of the newbies. And the punishing hours and the perceived importance of the work, and the way the job demands isolate the young financiers from their family and former friends also justifies their self-serving belief that their lofty pay is deserved. As I wrote in 2010:
But the firms are white-collar sweatshops with glamorous trappings. You do not know how hard you can work, short of slavery, unless you have been an investment banking analyst or associate. It is not merely the hours, but the extreme and unrelenting time pressure. Priorities are revised every day, numerous times during the day, as markets move. You have many bosses, each with independent demands and deadlines, and none cares what the others want done when. You are not allowed to say no to unreasonable demands. The sense of urgency is so great that waiting for an elevator is typically agonizing. If you manage to get your bills paid and your laundry done, you are managing your personal life well. Exhaustion is normal…
A setting that would seem to reward, nay require, cutting corners has another striking feature: intolerance for error. A computation mistake or a typo in a client document is a career-limiting event…
And the dynamic doesn’t change much over the course of one’s career. The drill of being a medical resident (or pre-Iraq, a tour of duty) has a known endpoint. But investment bankers have signed a Faustian contract: You have no right to personal boundaries. The business says how high to jump, and you are expected to deliver. Yes, more senior people have more dignity, but the idea that your needs are second to those of the business never changes.
In my day, it wasn’t uncommon for the firm to ask associates to reschedule weddings if they conflicted with a deal. It wasn’t that firms were opposed to marriage; indeed, the partners knew a young man was theirs once he procured a wife and, better yet, kids. He was tied hopelessly into a personal overhead structure that would keep him in the business.
Not that there was any real risk that someone would leave voluntarily. Exhaustion and loss of personal boundaries are an ideal setting for brainwashing, which is why people who have spent much of their career in finance have such difficulty understanding why their firm and their worldview might not be the center of the universe, why they might not be deserving of their outsized pay.
In my day, you were more likely to see physical than emotional breakdown. For instance, one recent college grad who had to get a presentation done by next morning went to the bathroom to throw up every half hour, then came back to work on his spreadsheets. This continued till he passed out and had to be hospitalized. He never came back.
And this sort of toll was not limited to the junior staff. One buddy, a vice president in hard-charging, testosterone-filled M&A, spent the better part of a weekend lying on her side on the floor of her office, reading deal documents. She kept reassuring concerned colleagues that she was fine, until on
Sunday the pain got so bad that she relented and called her boyfriend. He came and took her straight to the hospital. The doctors operated immediately, assuming she had appendicitis. They found instead diverticulitis, which usually afflicts the elderly, and she was so close to a colon rupture that they had to remove half of it.
The partners at her firm instructed her to not to return until she had recovered fully. But this was September. Bonuses were paid at year end, and as she read the unwritten code, and knew that staying away too long would be seen as a sign of weakness. She was back at the office three weeks later, looking wan.
She later became the first woman investment banking partner at her prestigious firm. Her instincts served her well. Or maybe not. She later lost 90 percent of the vision in one eye to glaucoma, an easily treated disease, because her overloaded schedule made eye exams seem like a luxury.
And one of the recent suicides was also a mid-career banker, a 29 year old, who’d recently gotten a good review and a $400,000 bonus, a reminder that the pressure and exhaustion are persistent features in some roles.
What has changed? I suspect several things: one is that it was only a small number of jobs in finance that required near total subordination of personal needs to demands of the business. Consider:
In June, Goldman introduced a policy for the 2,900 undergraduate summer interns in investment banking: Leave the office before midnight each day. No more all-nighters.
When I was at Goldman, the entire investment banking division was all of 250 people. Some of the departments in (international, private placements) only very rarely had its members work taxing hours. I’d guesstimate that out of that 250, at most 60 were in the pressure-cooker jobs. Wall Street was more concentrated then, so if you go across all of Wall Street, and even throw in the securities lawyers who were working alongside the stressed out bankers, you wouldn’t come close to that 2,900 figure in total.
But even with the bad press from the deaths, Wall Street still has no perspective on its work model for these jobs. As former McKinsey partner and leadership expert Doug Smith wrote by e-mail:
Sometimes, life is a sick parody of itself. “We want work/life balance. So, you are required to leave no later than midnight”
Do the Goldman folks even read what their own policies say????
These numbers are a classic case of a difference in degree representing a difference in kind. In the 1980s, if you left one of the super-prized, super-stressed roles, even if you took a money or status hit, the drop was not all that far, once you were able to bleach your brain of the acute status-consciousness you’d previously embraced.
By contrast, today, with a vastly more competitive job market, a huge growth in number of highly-sought-after specialities, and employer expectations and technology turning even more of them into high the employment version of iron man triathlons, and far more narrow hiring criteria, it’s not obvious how someone who drops off the fast track will land.
And if someone who is panicked about losing their job financed their graduate degree with student debt, it’s not as if they feel they can risk missing payments and having their interest rates ratchet up to the punitive levels that virtually assure lifetime debt slavery (and that’s before you get to the double-whammy of a bad credit score preventing candidates from even being considered for most jobs).
I suspect the second factor is the impoverishment of personal ties among the young: that young people are pressured much earlier than in my day to perform at a high level, and that overstructuring of schedules and more “friendships” mediated through technology means much weaker emotional support, even among those who by the standards of young people today are well socialized.
The third new factor is the widespread use of performance-enhancing drugs, particularly Adderall. It’s become so routine for high school and college students to use amphetamines for exams and deadlines that it’s hard to think that they aren’t a staple in top finance and law jobs. In fact, if you don’t use them, you are probably putting yourself at a serious competitive disadvantage. But being able to push yourself even further past your physical limits on a regular basis has to come at a cost. If Adderall compromises REM sleep (or alternatively, if someone winds up needing to use barbituates to sleep after stimulant overuse, which does mess up REM sleep), that alone can push someone quickly towards psychological instability, even if they have no previous tendency towards that.
Why does this matter? It’s another sign of the fraying of our social structures. Those at the top are willing to have members in good standing of their own cohort chewed up by their own institutions, and these leaders know they have no one else to blame. Yet they deny the smell of gangrene. From a New York Times story on banker suicides:
Mr. Dimon, who is recovering from throat cancer and whose partner, the deal mogul Jimmy Lee, died suddenly in June at 62, took a paternal tone in discussing work-life balance. “You’ve got to take care of your mind, your body, your spirit, your soul, your health,” he said. “JPMorgan can’t do it for you, or wherever you work.” If you neglect those things, he said, “You’ll destroy your personal relationships. You’ll destroy your life. You won’t be healthy. You won’t enjoy it.”
“Taking care of yourself” requires that you have personal resources at your disposal, meaning some control of your time and money. Dimon’s clueless advice is as absurd in its own way as those who tell low income people to eat better, when they lack the time and money to make healthy meals on their limited budgets. His “Let them eat lifestyle cake” is a way of washing his hands of responsibility for workplace deaths. And why shouldn’t he? Given the huge personal costs of the crisis, which includes suicides that were clearly the result of wrongful foreclosures by banks like JP Morgan, why should Dimon and his ilk change a successful business model just to forestall a possible suicide or two a tad closer to home? In other words, don’t be fooled by the crocodile tears being shed by the top brass over these deaths.
Something is up in the financial system; gold and gold-related assets best performing asset YTD.
Mike Maloney takes a peek behind the veil and finds utter carnage; got gold yet (or even better ... silver)?
Mike Maloney, Harvey...and all the rest of those crooks/charlatans without fail every year keep bringing up the Comex. I wrote a really long piece on another forum in which I expressed my deep displeasure and outlined why I believed that most of the rhetoric and narrative about silver is just complete bullshit propagated by sharks. Also of course, I was pissed off because I too was duped by the sales pitch.
As for metals rising....yes, but this is on the back of a 70% plus percentage fall and they are experience a slight rise as the dollar has slightly weakened. The trajectory of stocks, sure, that is down, but to say that stocks are suffering more than the metals is just inevitable given that at some point other asset classes would also falter.
That is not to say that metals won't rise further, but I tend to agree with Martin Armstrong, when deflation really starts, capital will flee into both stocks, metals and other hard assets.
Ah, how the "elites" love the smell of PM despair in the air in the mornin'; now be a good boy and sell your PM's so they can cover up their Ponzi for a few more seconds...
Look, gold went up from lows of USD 252 in 1999, when Gordon Brown, then the Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK decided it was a good time to dump, uh sell, tons of gold and even announcing it beforehand! No, he was not an idiot, this was done on instructions from his uberlords, which gladly picked it up at rock bottom prices.
From there gold went all the way up to 1900+ in 2011, quite a ride indeed. If you have been suckered into the market at the peak, that's painful of course, but think of it this way; it's not going to matter when gold and silver will be revalued to much higher levels. If it weren't for the outright manipulation of the gold price using derivatives on the Comex etc. this would have already happened. These people do not want the sheeple the own something that will retain it's value, so that's why we had a campaign of discouragement over the last 4-5 years. And why is it that people want to buy when things are at their peak, in stead of when it's cheap. We have been given the buying opportunity of a life time, as the Chinese, Russians and Indians understand all too well. Don't blame Maloney, Schiff or any of these other "goldbugs" for the price of gold; they are not the ones manipulating the shit out of markets. You have to thank our (Central) Bank uberlords for that. Nobody in his right mind knew that this shit could have been going on for as long as it has, but to an end it will come.
When looking at the stock markets, although CNBC and Cramer would love for us to drink the Kool-aid and believe everything is unicorns and rainbows, worldwide stock markets are already in bear market territory since January of this year;
The only market in the world that seems to be holding it's own are the US equity markets, with the S&P 500 down less than 10%. However when looking at the S&P as an equal weight index we find that things are not as rosy as they seem, and is down more than 12%;
Don't count on the stock markets to help you get through the financial dire straits that are just around the corner, the US is probably already in a recession and it's only downhill from here. You don't want counterparty risk in this enviroment and the only assets that will help you with that are hard assets that you own outright.
Lol, talking about crooks, how about Martin Armstrong? Let's see, it seems that he spent some time in prison and was almost beaten to death when there. He was released under obscure conditions and I think that part of the deal was that he would disinfo us up to a certain degree. Personally, I take everything that comes out of his mouth with a shit load of salt. Smart, yes, trustworthy, no.
Check out this guy, a revaluation coming of gold to USD 8000, imo a lot sooner then what Willem states;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmuiAY2WiIU _________________ "A person hears only what he understands."
Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Firstly, let's clarify something, I am probably about 65% invested into silver and it has been a bit higher than that too. I am not arguing against silver, if I was, then I wouldn't have bought so much of it in the first place, rather I have taken a more balanced approach to things.
So firstly, to address the despair, well, the despair was felt, not so much because of the tumbling price, the despair was felt because I knew I had been PLAYED. It's all very well you talking about how they are not at fault etc and yet, I spoke to the expert at bullionvault, around June 2011 and he was actually good enough to have quite a long conversation with me actually, we spoke about the Comex and so forth and he said, well, our analysts have looked at the market and concluded that while there may be another spike up, it will be short lived and the bull market is probably finished for at least the next few years.
Now, compare that with the rhetoric of Schiff, Maloney, and co, it wasn't a question of was the silver bull market over, no, it was a question of just how many multiples higher it would rise in the coming months. Even in 2014 they were denying the very basic, very simple provable fact that they we were in fact in a bear market. So whilst the elite of this world are absolute scum, the lesson for me has been that I have got suckered in by salesmen, then they want to sell me silver at no matter what the price.
I have becoming increasingly pissed off at these clowns particularly when they get disgruntled when they are asked basic questions like....hey are you using your own money to short the silver or gold market? because if you are, whilst preaching the virtues and masquerading as someone trying to help the people, then that makes you a scumbag. As for criminality, well before Harvey was TOTALLY discrediting the silver market he was actually involved in criminal fraud himself, but that really shouldn't surprise me.
What I object to also is that if we assume and accept that the markets are indeed all manipulated, then it stands to reason that silver was also being manipulated upwards too and this had nothing to do with supply and demand factors but yet that was perfectly acceptable as far as the bullshitters were concerned.
The "this time it's different" meme has been heard over and over again, moreover if we are to talk about conspiracies in the form of Martin Armstrong, whether you believe he is dealing out disinfo or not, the gold bugs shunned him because he started to suggest Gold was going to fall heavily and sure enough, it has.
Record demand for silver eagles....yawwwwwn, anyone who brings up a sales record over the past 4 years will see that the actual volume of silver eagles has not really shifted dramatically. Furthermore we must remember that as buyers of silver we represent, what? perhaps 1%. If you want to see just how much silver is available, contrary to the above ground silver baseless hyperbole spewed out from the sales camp, then just search on even uk ebay for silver and there are literally thousands upon thousands of items being sold, from plates to cutlery, to platters and so forth.
Even were this not true, which it is, but lets assume it wasn't the above ground silver is also the many hundreds of millions of ounces of silver coins and bars. I am going to be conservative here, there is at least 2 billion ounces of above ground silver and I am probably just wildly understating. As for the Comex....since 2003 they have been saying the Comex is going to default, but the Comex can't default as firstly they can settle in paper and moreover, the Comex is nothing but a casino.
The Comex stories are just as ridiculous as the silver eagles being capped by the US mint when in reality they operate a just in time production and therefore try and estimate what the demand will be at any given time and thanks to the hype which surrounds silver eagles, they get caught out.
Silver is a good buy because it is a hard asset, available at a much cheapernprice. Moreover I agree with you the stock market is heading downwards but we both know if and when inflation arrives, the stock market will be carried upwards again. Even Mike Maloney acknowledges the possibility of that one. Ultimately capital will have to go somewhere and the metals market is too small for most capital to move into, so, whilst some will undoubtedly go into metals, a lot will come into stocks too.
Are stocks absolutely insanely priced right now? absolutely, would I be investing in stocks right now? absolutely not. I just take issue with the many overblown and inaccurate statements which have been made about silver by these sharks because ultimately it does dissuade investors. What will ultimately move the metals higher, especially silver will be an increased interest from more people, but to say that at $15.33 that we are somehow going to the moon is just wishful thinking. It will take at least another 3 or 4 years to get back to anywhere near the $40 level. That is why I approached your response in the manner that I did.
These levels are certainly cheap in comparison but, as we have both seen, prices can be sustained at a much lower level, in terms of production costs than any of us would have given it credit for, again, in part, partly due to the misreporting of the good ol sales guys.
So basically what you're saying is that you're pissed off with the metal sales men because they did not tell you that PM's would be entering a downturn and you got in at the wrong moment. First of all, you use the word salesmen; isn't that exactly what they do for a living, sell things (in this case PM's). They'll be happy to sell to you at any price, and they have a good story as to why you need to get into their stuff RIGHT NOW, as long as they can make a profit. But at the end of the day, it's not them that determine the price of silver or gold. If you expect honesty from these people, I'm afraid you have not gotten the hang of what kind of a system we're living under.
Dude, we're being screwed 24/7 for as long as we can remember! How about usury on your mortgage or loan; fiat money conjured up out of thin air at practically no cost to the issuer for which the borrower will have to give up 30 years of his life energy so that he can have a roof over his head. Hello RBS, HSBC, when are you going to stop squeezing every last drop of human sweat out of us?
How about another item that sucks dry our accounts every month, energy, leading to billions upon billions of profits for the oil companies. Are you pissed off with BP, Shell, and these other nefarious energy companies? How about drugs (legal or illegal); serious money there for the drug companies at the expense of your wallet AND your health! Angry with GSK, Bristol Myers Squibb and all these other demonic drug companies?
I guess I could go on but I assume you're catching my drift here.
One economist discovered that most products (including big ticket items like a house) could be sold for almost half the price if only usury were abolished! Now don't you just feel a little ripped off?
So where is the morality and the virtue of the bankers, oil men, pharma men etc. etc. So no, I don't expect metal sales men to be choir boys under a totally corrupted system; you shouldn't either.
btw1 I put up Maloney's comments not because I think he is a virtuous man, but because he had some interesting information to share with us (for free!), and not only concerning the situation at the Comex
btw2 deflation is a contraction in the money supply, caused by a wave of defaults, the money simply disappears as credit can not be repaid. This means counter party risk is becoming every investor's main concern again. Given the massive accumalation of debt over the past few decades this is going to be a horrendous process. Since gold and silver do not have counter party risk this will be one of the main arguments for wanting to own them. If MA argues otherwise he's either an incompetent fool or a deceiver. In the end it won't really matter what the price of gold or silver will be, but what you can buy with it. That's why USD 10,000 or 50,000 or 200 targets are basically meaningless. _________________ "A person hears only what he understands."
Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
No mate, I am pissed off because they have not just used the merits of silver to sell their products they have used downright lies and distortions in order to hoodwink people. Furthermore they are always try and play down their own interests in this, they are not calling it down the line. The reality is that such was the outrageous hype spearheaded by a litany of lies, that a lot of people's purchasing power has been shot to pieces by investing in silver. Ultimately, it is just an asset.
As for the other scum bags you mention, absolutely, there are sharks everywhere. I am more disgruntled when someone I regarded as being honest turns out to be a shark. However if you are to dismiss Martin Armstrong, then consider for a moment David Morgan who essentially agrees that manipulation does not change a trend. So, with that being said, the buy silver at any price, as we have seen is just a devious notion. I remember back in 2011 when I first started investing in silver such was the hype and delusion mixed with a sense of "patriotism" that those who suggested maybe now might be a good time to free up some funds (when silver was in the $35 level were lambasted and decried for just being you know, shills.
Yet, as we are seeing with stocks too, what goes up quickly comes down even faster (evidenced in the german stock market most notably). Yet, when there was evidently a parabolic move going on in silver everyone was told to sit down, shut up and buy more.
I have watched some of Mike Maloney's videos too by the way and I agree, there is indeed informative content there, I am just saying, experience has taught me to take a more balanced, pragmatic view
I still expect the scenario (really his) that i said in september to play out, although so did GS before getting stopped out. I expect QE in the EU and Jap to cause a relative dollar strengthening and flight into the dollar before the great deflationary collapse. The Dollar will be perceived as the 2nd to last safe haven, temporarily weakening gold (gold obviously will be the last). After the flight to the dollar conditions will be like in the great depression, when the central banks did their best and failed to re-inflate the stock bubble of the 20s, deflation hitting despite their best attempts.
Thats when I plan to heed Mr. Eberhardt's all in call. (He says gold somewhere in the 900 range). Gold should bottom right before the deflation hits, although if/when it breaks 1000 I personally won't wait. Hell I'm getting itchy on the trigger now. _________________ "Come on baby, just the TTiP. I'll Quantitatively ease it in"
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