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Fintan
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This from April 2013 goes some way to illuminating the issues:

Quote:
WHO SAID THE HYDRA WOULD TAKE IT LYING DOWN
while its several heads were being chopped off one-by-one?

Antal E. Fekete
New Austrian School of Economics

http://www.professorfekete.com/articles/AEFWhoSaidDragon.pdf

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RedMahna



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PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 10:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

barter? like, as in unregulated trading of goods and services? surely, no monopoly (group of thugs and snakeoil salesmen) could ever interfere with that kind of operation!!

well, that should go off smoothly... or at least, until many people find out how hard a life that can be. (or if you're lucky, how awesome a life that could be FOR YOU!!!!)

cuz it still requires resources of all kinds... you know, the actual time/effort/things it involves that not everyone possesses equally.

helluva challenge, but perhaps it will seperate the weak from the strong. or will there be barter charities and good neighbor leagues set up? who will change diapers at the orphanage? who will clean prison cells? who will check to see if grandma and grandpa are still breathing?

ME!!

i want a job as inspector. seriously. i am very good at thinking up all sorts of important questions. Please Pick ME!!!

thank you!
PS - i like Prof Antal Fekete - thanks Fin, for reminding me to visit his page again. he's a smart cookie!

red

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Fintan
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 8:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:

Quite a landmark day for gold.

Since they ended the big gold take down dump at end June, gold futures
market volume is now back to pre-dump levels. Gold futures volume is
now only 40% of the avg vol during the dump from Oct 2012 - June 2013.

(see dump period volume highlighted in BFN graphic above)

The peak volume spike was the day of their biggest dump of the whole
period, during the smash down from 1550 to 1350.

Today, @ 1364 we closed above that day's smash down price of 1350.

This puts us on track for an eventual rebound to 1550, with the first
100 point jump to 1464 being easy enough to attract "mo" money to
hop aboard quickly for the trip.

In summary, this is no dead cat bounce.

The bottom in gold is well in, and backwardation reigns.

This is shaping up to an epic short squeeze.

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duaneh



Joined: 26 Feb 2011
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

is gold/silver passe

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/08/01/tangible-v-intangible-money-why-times-have-changed/

Tangible v Intangible Money – Why Times Have Changed


..............

"Gold is a commodity and resides on the asset side of the balance sheet. The Goldbugs tout the German Hyperinflation and somehow pretend that only gold survived when in fact it was all assets. Indeed, the replacement currency that stopped the hyperinflation was backed by real estate – not gold. Understanding what we face is the real key. Owning real estate, stocks, and gold is a diversified portfolio. They all rise against the decline in purchasing power of money regardless what it is. When gold was money, it then declined against real estate and stocks. WHATEVER is money moves opposite of assets.

Up to now, gold has been the WORST performing asset within that class. Just to match the 1980 high adjusted for inflation gold needs to be $2300. The Dow Jones was 1,000 and today we are approaching 16,000. If gold has performed in the same manner it should have reach $14,000. Gold will rally sharply as a hedge against government. We are not headed into hyperinflation – we are headed into a very dangerous black hole where government destroys the entire economy in pursuit of taxes."

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Plato



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PostPosted: Sat Aug 17, 2013 7:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chris Duane from; http://thegreatesttruthnevertold.com gives you 30 compelling reasons not to be in real estate (or any paper assets for that matter), see link below. Never mind what happened in the past (with all this Fed rigging the markets going on), it's the future you have to worry about...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?list=PLNDVW-nx9LPETyaZwqcbE4bxv5sQid4ix&v=8_AyOunLTUI&feature=player_detailpage

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RedMahna



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PostPosted: Sun Aug 18, 2013 4:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

indeed, it is what it is...

red

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Plato



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PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 1:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This article suggests that the massive manipulation in gold prices is not actually perpetrated by the usual suspects alone, but that the Chinese might also have a huge hand in this, you know, just helping out keeping the value of the dollar propped up against gold (especially if you're drowning in the stuff). Think about it; as the biggest buyer of gold it is of course a huge advantage to get a little discount. In time the Chinese will be able to dethrone the dollar as the international reserve currency, as they have actually something to back their own currency with. The more I learn about the Chinese, the more I'm beginning to admire their cunningness......


Quote:
The first thing we learned is that there apparently has been no criminal manipulation of markets. It turns out that the perpetrators, the legal system and the enforcement mechanisms have decreed that the manipulation of markets is completely legal relying upon legislation enacted in the 1930s. That is quite a disturbing surprise for the majority of investors who have been told that attempting to corner and manipulate markets would not be tolerated, and would also result in severe financial penalties as well as incarceration. Apparently this is the case for everyone except central planners. It is just official policy. As they say, “nothing to see here, keep moving”.

In the case of J.P. Morgan, they have said that they are simply executing the orders of the customers when accused of cornering/manipulating the precious metals markets. There has also been speculation that the “customer” to which they are referring is the U.S. government/ Federal Reserve. There has also been speculation that the Chinese have had a hand in the suppression of gold and silver prices.

It crossed our minds that the real customer is not only the Fed and the U.S. Treasury, but also the Chinese. It has been surmised that the Chinese have had two objectives with their massive acquisition of gold. The first is diversification away from their massive accumulations of paper currencies, specifically the dollar. The other speculation is that the Chinese would like to take over the mantle of the world’s reserve currency in the form of a gold-backed Yuan. Both are no doubt true.

Connecting the dots to create a plausible explanation for what we are witnessing, let us assume that China is one of the customers to which J.P. Morgan is referring. The U.S. might be allowing China to suppress gold and silver prices in exchange for a deal not to disgorge their huge holdings of Treasuries on the open market. J.P. Morgan could very well be telling the truth, just not the truth that most people believe.

China also floods the paper gold and silver markets with huge quantities of contracts which neither the Comex or J.P. Morgan will question. At these artificially low prices, China is able to vacuum up existing stocks of physical gold from the GLD and other repositories, in order to add to the tons acquired from their own domestic mining.

But the harsh reality is this is a very dangerous poker game for the United States to take part in because the deck is stacked against the US. How does it end? China simply defaults on any outstanding paper contracts. The answer as to when they might do that is when there are no significant existing holdings to be acquired. We appear to be getting very close to that moment with the dramatic reduction of above ground supplies throughout the Western central bank vaults.

If default sounds far fetched, recall that in August of 2009, it was decreed by the Chinese Assets Supervision and Administration Commission that state-owned entities could walk away from derivatives where lack of disclosure and fraud are involved. Given that the evidence is clear that the gold and silver markets have been rigged, it would be easy to say that outstanding contracts could be voided. We are also sure that J.P. Morgan and other firms alleged to be involved would have protected themselves long ago.

Why would the scenario outlined above be plausible? Having the reserve currency status is a huge advantage. Faced with the choice between allowing the Chinese to acquire 10,000 tons of gold that could very well dethrone the dollar longer-term and an immediate dethroning if U.S. treasuries were unloaded, one can see the Fed choosing the option that buys more time. Strategically, the U.S. avoids an immediate collapse of the dollar and the loss of reserve currency status. The Chinese get cheap gold, but this means that the dollar won’t be dethroned, at least for now.

As the financial fog continues to dissipate, the above scenario makes sense to us. As investors, we will have to wait and see how these events unfold. In the meantime, diversification out of paper currencies into real assets is the proper strategy. Energy, gold and silver remain as crucial components of the foundation of a portfolio. We also believe that shares in rapidly growing companies as well as cash-rich older firms make equally good sense to us. Another good choice would be well-managed private companies with sound business models. For those worried about getting their paper assets “out of the system”, stock held in private companies would add that particular dimension.


full article; http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/9/30_Poker_End_Game_-_JP_Morgan,_Fed,_US_Treasury,_China_%26_Gold.html

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Fintan
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 10:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, I'd read that and it had a plausability.

But I think the context of this pitch is wrong:

Quote:
Faced with the choice between allowing the Chinese to acquire 10,000
tons of gold that could very well dethrone the dollar longer-term and
an immediate dethroning if U.S. treasuries were unloaded, one can
see the Fed choosing the option that buys more time.

Strategically, the U.S. avoids an immediate collapse of the dollar and
the loss of reserve currency status. The Chinese get cheap gold, but this
means that the dollar won’t be dethroned, at least for now.

Just a second?!

China dumping T-Bills would damage... China.
A collapse of the dollar would damage... China.

We are in a process of managed transition to multi-polarity.

Related...

Here's an astounding snippet from Don Coxe's
latest and well read analysis:

Quote:
"The Eurozone has been the big drag. It is definitely stronger than it
was a year ago. The Eurozone has lots of problems, but it is experiencing
economic growth despite the European Central Bank reducing its balance
sheet in the last 12 months by almost exactly the same percentage
amount that the Fed increased its balance sheet."


http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/why-don-coxe-expects-gold-to-soar-on-good-economic-news

No wonder the Euro is rising v the dollar!

China ain't the only new reserve currency player....

And Gold is the third leg of this EU-China-Gold stool.

So who benefits from yo-yo messing with gold?

Hint: not the EU or China.

Guess.

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Plato



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PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 2:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Just a second?!

China dumping T-Bills would damage... China.
A collapse of the dollar would damage... China.

We are in a process of managed transition to multi-polarity.

Agreed. It's not in China's interest to see the dollar collapse.....; until it is and the Yuan can take over as the world's new reserve currency, at least partially backed by gold. The dollar will implode with mathematical certainty whether the Chinese dump their T-bonds or not; it's just of question of when, everybody knows that including the Chinese. So why not prop up the dollar for a little while longer by manipulating the gold price and as a result load up gold at a discount. If people would realize with what fervor the Chinese are purchasing gold and if the gold price were showing for that, that would not be in the interest of the Chinese either, would it? The gold price would have skyrocketed already. Oh, and I think the Chinese will be most happy to confiscate all US holdings in China, like the 50,000+ manufacturing plants that were moved from the US to China over the last decades. That will do nicely as a repayment for those worthless US bonds.

I'm not to sure about a multi-polar world, at least not in the sense that the euro as it exists now will have any meaningful part to play in it. The whole notion that Europe is recovering is preposterous, and could have come straight from a propaganda manual by Goebbels himself. Until Merkel's re-election almost two weeks ago it was to be expected that all news coming out of Europe would be hunky-dory, as not to upset the Germans that will have to pay for the economic "recovery" (or rather the permanent transfer of German euros to the PIIGS). The problem with propaganda is that once it is repeated often enough, it is taken as truth. However, now that mrs. Merkel has been re-elected the news coming out of the PIIGS will be rather disappointing. A recent article in zerohedge summed up the "recovery" in one blatantly clear chart;

As you can see in the chart loans to non-financial companies are going over the cliff, especially in Spain, down 25% over the last 2 years!



A credit contraction to non-financial companies (the lifeblood of an economy) kills the economy (ask Bill Still, he'll confirm that for you).

In my opinion, when the German people will understand the utter mess the Southern European countries are in and what is expected of them, a permanent transfer union funneling tens of billions of euros over the next decade(s) or so, they will have had enough. The euro will break up and the Germans will probably team up with the Dutch, Austrians and Finns (to make it look like they are not going it alone, the other three will have no choice). To make things sound less bad they will call it the "nordic euro". Anyway, things will get rather interesting over the next year or so.

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James D



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PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 3:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can't help but take a little umbrage with the " as not to upset the Germans that will have to pay for the economic "recovery" (or rather the permanent transfer of German euros to the PIIGS) " comment - it was after all THEIR BAD DEBT that THEY lent out to prop up THEIR currency, no? Was it not?

For example, although you probably didn't hear much about it, Spain has ALREADY had its Cyprus like moment of the life savings of hard working people being transferrred to those "poor, long suffering" German Banks - "Los Preferentes" as much as 30,000 million Euros or more!

http://www.cdsolicitors.com/2013/06/11/preferred-shares-the-great-scandal/

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/30/spain-banks-idUSL5N0AZH0U20130130

http://campopulse.blogspot.com.es/2012/07/i-put-all-my-savings-into-preferentes.html

All aided and abetted by corrupt politicians and bankers who are now selling off national assets, like in Greece, and enforcing austerity measures on those same populations who just got fucked over big time!
They lend no money, because they have no money - under direct orders from Berlin. But how long can the big squeeze continue to go on?

Nobody in Europe believes any of that hunky-dory news! It's a complete front for those same corrupt politicians and bankers - they're the ones who don't want to be upset as they wine and dine on their fine curds and whey, but looking out ever more nervously for that plebicite spider.

Meanwhile down on the street, some of us are lucky and have got something to eat - others are not!

And if all this austerity stuffs their European markets, for which the Euro was designed, then Germany will still be fine no matter what happens - they'll just re-train their staff, re-invest in plant and infrastructure and push out Eastwards.

I don't see the Euro disappearing any time soon - it's doing a fine job of sucking all of periferal Europe's wealth to the E Centre B.

"We" PIIGS might go back to battering, and it's already happening, but that's another thing.
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Plato



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PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 7:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

James D wrote:
I can't help but take a little umbrage with the " as not to upset the Germans that will have to pay for the economic "recovery" (or rather the permanent transfer of German euros to the PIIGS) " comment - it was after all THEIR BAD DEBT that THEY lent out to prop up THEIR currency, no? Was it not?

For example, although you probably didn't hear much about it, Spain has ALREADY had its Cyprus like moment of the life savings of hard working people being transferrred to those "poor, long suffering" German Banks - "Los Preferentes" as much as 30,000 million Euros or more!



James, first of all, no offense was meant by that comment. Surely I feel for all the little people wherever they are (heck, I'm one of them myself!), whether in Southern Europe, Northern Europe, the US, or anywhere else. That's not the point. The point is that we have to make a distinction between the German banks and their agents the politicians on the one hand, and the German people on the other, or any people subjugated under the yoke over private banksters for that matter.

I'm not sure what you mean by "THEIR currency" but the German people never had any say in the matter, it was a Kohl-Mitterand deal. Kohl wanted re-unification, Mitterand wanted to tie down the Germans, and there we have it, a political backroom deal leading to an economic monstrosity. BTW, countries were most eager to join the euro, as it has been shown that both Greece and Italy cooked the books to get in ("helped out" by that great vampire-squid, GS). So, it really can not be argued that it was the Germans' fault.

http://www.presseurop.eu/en/content/article/351531-you-get-unification-we-get-euro

The euro, the accompanying optimism and especially the readily available credit at low interest rates were a fatal cocktail for the Southern European countries, that went on a spending binge. You may blame the German banks for lending out to much of the stuff, but as a borrower, don't you have any responsibility on your part? Not to mention that the S-E countries have a serious problem when it comes to collecting taxes, especially the rich. So to have Heinz Bratwurst pay for the mistakes of others, whereas being frugal himself all the time, doesn't seem really fair either, does it?

Quote:
All aided and abetted by corrupt politicians and bankers who are now selling off national assets, like in Greece, and enforcing austerity measures on those same populations who just got fucked over big time!
They lend no money, because they have no money - under direct orders from Berlin. But how long can the big squeeze continue to go on?


To answer your last question; it can't. Like you made abundantly clear already, the little folks in S-E are paying the price for all this "austerity" crap, with no end in sight. I don't think that hanging on to the euro is going to help them in any meaningful way (unless of course, they're masochistic). This brings me to the theme I have been hammering on about on this site for some time; the ending of private banking institutions, starting with the Fed.

1] Money as a means of exchange, a supposed store of value and unit of account is too pivotal for any economy to be handled by private institutions; banks and any money creating institution should be firmly placed in the hands of the people, like it says in the US constitution;
"Congress shall have the power to coin money and regulate the value thereof." Therefore no more private banks, no more government debts, as the gov't, as the sovereign entity it is, issues it's own money;
2] Abolition of usury (or interest, as it is euphemistically called) for private individuals; the payment of usury used to be considered a sin for good reason
3] Massive debt relief worldwide; the whole system has to be rebooted by giving people a fair financial chance again; this means that ultimately some very rich people will pay the price ( I, for one, surely don’t feel sorry for them, they are the same ones that own our banks).

Hopefully we can find some common ground here!

"The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks."
Lord Acton (1834-1902)

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Fintan
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 6:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Plato: I'm not to sure about a multi-polar world, at least not in
the sense that the euro as it exists now will have any meaningful part
to play in it.


Well the Euro is running a pseudo-gold-standard:
all the rigidity none of the auto trade rebalancing:

Quote:
Actually, There Is A Gold Standard Today, And It's Causing An Economic Catastrophe
by Joe Weisenthal
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-03-20/markets/31213338_1_ecb-currency-europe-crisis


So, yeah - good luck with that "recovery."
Bad news for the German electorate, too.

And as Mish points out:

Quote:
Germany's current account surplus has reached six percent, an
amount that bureaucrats in Brussels have decided is a threat to the
entire continent. The EU commission will likely issue a warning to
Germany with threats of sanctions if Germany does nothing about it.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/08/germany-6-current-account-surplus.html

And under EU rules, if Germany runs that high a trade surplus
with the rest of the EU - then automatic rebalancing kicks in......

...OR should kick in if the EU wasn't ignoring Germany's infringement!

Good luck with holding that line on that status quo.
More bad news for the German electorate.

And as JamesD points out:

Quote:
JamesD: it was after all THEIR BAD DEBT that THEY lent out....


Yet more bad news which Germans will figure out.
More like a perfect storm of bad news.

A Nordic Euro would raise the sticker price on a US BMW by 30%. Hmmmm.

Far simplerfor the CB's just keep buying each other's bonds on a rotating
basis - funded with ongoing bouts of devaluing QE to the financial sector.


Quote:
Plato: The euro, the accompanying optimism and especially the
readily available credit at low interest rates were a fatal cocktail for the
Southern European countries, that went on a spending binge.


China, US and EU all deliberately used financial leverage to expand
their economies. Chinese banks and US banks used the same shadow
banking credit techniques as the EU.

All shared the same "accompanying optimism" meme - and low rates.
It doubled world trade in ten years. It added say 50% of that doubling.

China built over-infrastructure. The US sneered.
Post-crash the Chinese still have the infrastructure.

By comparison, the US and some US allies in the EU unleashed
the bankers to profit-gouge like hogs on all the new cashflow.

The rest is history.

Quote:
Plato:
1] Money as a means of exchange, a supposed store of value and unit of account is too pivotal for any economy to be handled by private institutions; banks and any money creating institution should be firmly placed in the hands of the people, like it says in the US constitution;
"Congress shall have the power to coin money and regulate the value thereof." Therefore no more private banks, no more government debts, as the gov't, as the sovereign entity it is, issues it's own money;
2] Abolition of usury (or interest, as it is euphemistically called) for private individuals; the payment of usury used to be considered a sin for good reason
3] Massive debt relief worldwide; the whole system has to be rebooted by giving people a fair financial chance again; this means that ultimately some very rich people will pay the price ( I, for one, surely don’t feel sorry for them, they are the same ones that own our banks).


Can't argue with any of that.
Only maybe as to nuance of detail.
The general direction is right on.

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