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kiwikeith



Joined: 25 Sep 2006
Posts: 174
Location: Perth, Australia

PostPosted: Wed Mar 31, 2010 6:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

King World News has an interview with Andrew Maguire & Adrian Douglas from GATA here:

http://www.kingworldnews.com/Andrew_Maguire_%26_Adrian_Douglass.html

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Big Boss



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Location: Outer Heaven

PostPosted: Wed Mar 31, 2010 1:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I remember sometime ago, maybe some years ago, Chase had an apology for their involvement in the African Slave Trade(?) it makes me wonder, if the shit continues to hit the fan for these guys, what will their website have in reference to it (the current shit-sandwich theyre in), this is but an irrelevant thought, but a thought that hit me lol. Thanks a ton Fintan and the rest of you guys for the awesome analysis. All I can do is learn from you guys and spread what I learn.
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hawkwind



Joined: 19 Jan 2006
Posts: 740

PostPosted: Wed Mar 31, 2010 5:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

heiho1 wrote:
I've been following the market for some time. It's pretty much confirmed at this point that the gold market is not just leveraged in the paper realm but is actually flush with tungsten plated gold bars:


This one is a tough sell IMHO. I'm sure there is counterfeiting in all areas of investment but I have yet to see any facts, just a few examples to hype up the AJ sponsors ... Twisted Evil

duane wrote:
why worry about useless gold or silver or gold plated tungsten ...
gold and silver are soooo 20th century
the real value lies in copper coated lead, from 50 grain to 250 grain denominations each with its own brass dispenser (but stay off facebook and don't have a website detailing your tactical training!)

invest in something functional, a reliable car, good set of tools, an alcohol still....

Have You Caught Gold Fever? The Value of That Shiny Metal Is as Artificial as Paper Money
The economic doomsters and investment advisers are engaged in a collective hallucination when they see growing value in gold.


Umm, no, I'm not a gold bug, just a coin collector, I've been one since a child. Metal prices are so minimal in the coin collectors market as to almost have no impact. Now the same can't be said for the bullion market comprising of bars, mint coins and paper ... Wink

I am more interested in pointing out the fraud of the whole financial industry and see this as another example ... maybe the most devastating one in history ...

If you get a chance, listen to this ...

In this interview with GATA we continue the saga after just having interviewed Andrew Maguire, the whistleblower out of London. This gives a short and long-term view down the rabbit hole through the eyes of 3 of the GATA board members.
http://www.kingworldnews.com/2010/3/30_Andrew_Maguire_Adrian_Douglass.mp3

- Hawk

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Rumpl4skn



Joined: 11 Feb 2006
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Location: 36� 3'N x 86�40'W

PostPosted: Wed Mar 31, 2010 5:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hawkwind wrote:

All I ask is that you acknowledge receipt of my information. The rest I leave in your good hands.

Respectfully yours,

Andrew T. Maguire


Quote:
Good afternoon, Mr. Maguire,

I have received and reviewed your email communications. Thank you so very much for your observations.


Translation: Commandant Klink says, "DIS-missed!"

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hawkwind



Joined: 19 Jan 2006
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 02, 2010 7:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Keiser Report №30: Markets! Finance! Scandal!

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Robert



Joined: 07 Feb 2006
Posts: 413

PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2010 12:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Paul Tustain at Bullionvault makes a fair and balanced assessment of this threads debate, even if he promotes his company.

Quote:

Cash Futures, Physical Forwards, and
London Gold's "100-to-1 Leverage"


SOME COMMENTATORS are alarmed that the amount of 'physical' gold in London is not sufficient to meet the immediate demands of the market.

This concern is based on a simple misunderstanding. Read what follows and you will have a much better idea of how gold futures, forwards, the spot and physical markets interact.

Professionals who trade gold over the counter use a convenient standard for specifying the form of the gold they will deliver between each other. The standard is written and maintained by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA).

This standard is the Good Delivery bar which weighs about 400 troy ounces, and is traded 100% fine (i.e. gross bar weight * purity). A Good Delivery bar must have been manufactured by a recognized refiner which subjects itself to rigorous and ongoing scrutiny by LBMA referees. All their output is carefully assayed.

Professional gold dealers, and they are mostly banks, trade both these bars, and notional contracts which are underpinned by these bars, i.e. 'derivatives' of the bars. These are things like gold futures, forwards and options.

Gold Forwards

The demand for forwards comes from volume buyers of physical metal like gold dealers who wish to supply jewelry manufacturers while the volume sellers are often gold mines and refiners. Both will make very specific forward settlement dates and conditions for the bullion delivery on a forward trade.

Private individuals would struggle to trade on their own account on the forward market, because they lack the settlement facilities like vaulting accounts at the accredited vaults which enable them to take and make delivery of Good Delivery bars. But a miner might go to an LBMA bullion bank and open a forward sale, and then arrange its gold to be shipped from a registered refiner direct to the buying bank.

So forwards are deals in physical gold, but not necessarily for immediate settlement.

Gold Future Contracts

Futures are different. Everyone including private investors can speculate on gold futures very easily. So is there physical gold behind futures trades?

A few Clearing Members of futures exchange will have a depository account with some real gold in it, though Ordinary Members would be unlikely to, and therefore cannot usually settle with their customers in gold.

Clearing Members' gold sits in the depository vaults, and title to it rests with warrants which are passed between Clearing Members on the occasions there is a net settlement of gold between them. (Several years ago BullionVault spent quite a while trying to find a way of owning gold in a Comex Depository Vault, through a Clearing Member, but we never found a satisfactory way. Perhaps someone else has been more successful. If they have we'd be happy to learn how, and publish the details.)

Because there is not ordinarily access to gold via futures markets the huge majority of Ordinary Members of the futures exchanges, and their customers, settle cash, not gold. The cash amount they settle is calculated by reference to a specific price formula which becomes very relevant when a future contract expires.

Futures & Forwards Together

Futures and forwards work hand-in-hand. Futures give the bank the opportunity to approximately hedge out any price risk they have taken on a specific forward trade. Futures are standardized, highly liquid and easily traded in volume. The beauty of futures is that all the gradual liquidity of three months of forward deliveries on specific dates can be concentrated in a standardized futures contract which you can deal with any trader, because all the contracts expire on the same day and with the same terms, regardless of which trader you choose. This exchangeability is the source of their liquidity.

Forwards, on the other hand, are hopelessly illiquid. Each was custom built 'over the counter' for a specific settlement day. But forwards really are deals in physical gold which will settle as Good Delivery bars, on almost every day of the year. So the flow of forwards through the vaulting system is smoother than the flow of futures through a futures exchange, which rush to close en-masse at expiry.

Adrian Douglas' Misunderstanding

The key concern that Adrian Douglas (a director of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), who attended the recent CFTC hearing) seems to have is that there is a giant physical exposure which remains undelivered. Let me explain why that is confused, while granting that there was no good explanation given by Jeffrey Christian (managing director of CPM Group, a New York commodities-market consultancy), who was in the hot-seat of a CFTC hearing. It is easier for me with the written word.

Forward contracts are priced according to two things: the price of gold, and the cost of money to the forward date of settlement (i.e. interest rates). Forward prices of gold stretch out into the future for months and years, forming what's called the forward curve.

The entire length of that forward curve is what the LBMA member's trader calls 'physical'. For them this differentiates it from the cash-only-equivalent of a futures contract. So, when they talk about 'physical' or about the open 'physical' position they are talking about a whole lot of forward deliveries which sellers are under no obligation to deliver today, and which the buyers neither immediately want nor can demand.

Those forwards will fall due for delivery a day at a time without causing more than a ripple in the market. But being extended into a series of physical settlements stretching out on that curve for years, the open physical position is of course much, much larger than the amount of gold which happens to be in the various London vaults today. That's no big deal, it's where gold mines and aeroplanes come in.

So when a professional market analyst like Mr Christian says the open physical position exceeds the amount of gold in the vaults all he is saying is that the gold which is due for physical settlement next week or next month has not necessarily been shipped in yet. But he knows (even if he does not express it very clearly) that the seller of a forward is on the hook for making the gold available on the appointed settlement date. And of course the seller will incur a severe financial penalty for failing to settle, which is why forward sellers don't sell gold without being very sure they can deliver it.

Mr Douglas seems to have made an understandable and honest mistake caused by the slightly confusing language which is used by traders. I hope you now see that the LBMA's open physical position on its forward curve far from being a risk is a genuine benefit to the gold market's smooth operation. It defines the daily rate at which real bars are needed into the future, and firmly places responsibility on the seller to make sure the gold arrives in good time. This helps keep the world of real bars settling efficiently.

At BullionVault we and all our customers benefit from this, because it means we can buy real bullion a few thousand ounces at a time from an LBMA dealer who keeps bars on hand to satisfy our modest demands. We don't have to organize the shipments. We settle 48 hours after dealing, by sending a bank transfer and getting ViaMat (our recognized vault operator) to collect the bars. This is called spot trading, which is, in effect, the nearest 2 days of that long forward curve.

How Banks Use the Forward Curve

When novices jump into the spot market and buy up all the immediately available stock (and this happens from time to time) the result is a spike in spot prices which reflects a lack of sellers capable of making immediate delivery. It may not represent a fundamental shift in the value of gold; there might for example be plenty of gold arriving next week, and all of it available at a cheaper price.

What a trader will do is look at the shape of the forward curve. If he sees that the curve has developed a lump at 48 hours, caused by that aggressive novice's buying, it will be profitable for him to sell his spare gold at spot, and buy forward by a week. He can deliver his bullion bank's on-hand gold which will be replenished next week when the aeroplane arrives. And he will make money from the aggressive buyer who has paid a premium price for urgent settlement.

Meanwhile, as he buys one week forward in anticipation of the aeroplane's arrival the effect is to distribute the novice's order along the curve, and to smooth it out again. You may have read of gold bugs who put huge orders into the spot market to prove the gold is not there. Well now you understand why no-one sells it to them! Selling physical gold which you cannot deliver on time is a big mistake which professionals don't make. If the gold bugs ordered 2 months forward allowing time for sourcing and shipments there would be plenty of sellers happy to take their business.

BullionVault Gold

So where does this leave the private investor? Using BullionVault, you can buy 'Good Delivery' gold from stock which is already in the vault. You are not even waiting for spot markets to settle.

The unusual rule on BullionVault is that a seller's gold must be on-hand, in the vault, for settlement; and the buyer's cash must be cleared in the bank. That's why we host the only gold market in the world which offers instantaneous settlement at the point of trade, and on a 24/7 basis. Thereafter, BullionVault simply looks after your gold. It's your property. It isn't available for any selling when the spot market goes to a premium, and we have neither the right nor the wish to play the curve the way a bullion bank does.

You can see this proven, each day, on our Daily Audit. If we were delivering gold out to make a few dollars on the forward curve our bar lists would show we were short of physical gold in our vault. This is why we regard it as so important to publish our bar lists, and their reconciliation to all customers' holdings, on a daily basis. So far as we know we are the only gold business in the world which does this.

We hope this has cleared up any confusion about the amount of gold in London vaults. Now we'd like to finish with a quick look at who is manipulating the futures market, and how.

Gold Futures Manipulation

Futures brokers here in the UK routinely tell their new customers that 9 out of 10 private customers lose money by dealing in futures. We understand the regulators require this as part of the necessary risk warning.

Part of the reason which has recently been alleged by GATA is that it is quite likely that there is some price 'manipulation' of futures contracts at expiry. This sort of thing is not a gold problem. It is a problem relating to futures markets in general.

Imagine you are a professional futures market seller not necessarily of gold, but of anything and you have the ability to settle the underlying commodity, while private investors do not. You sell the futures whenever they appear to be at a premium over your forward curve, which will happen as the speculators get into a buying frenzy on the futures market.

Suppose that at expiry the futures price is low against the forward curve, which is quite likely if lots of private investors are on the long side and are rushing to close out their near contract. You the professional will be perfectly happy to buy the future back, so long as the discount to forwards remains worth it, because then your physical stock won't have to be delivered out, and you won't need to buy a new forward to arrange a relatively expensive new delivery of physical stock into your depository account. So you see private investors will only find buyers for their urgent sales if the buyers get a discount to fair value. The professionals are in the box seat because they can settle.

Now suppose the opposite: that at expiry, the future is at a premium over the forward curve (which is what happens when lots of short sellers who can't settle have been dominating the speculator's market, and are now rushing in to buy to close before expiry). Now the professional will act as the seller, but only if the future is offering him a premium over the forward curve, otherwise he'll run his open long to settlement. So once again the professional has the whip hand over a crowd all trying to do the same thing to avoid settlement. Whichever way the market moves the professional is in the driving seat if he can sort out settlements, which is the position few (if any) private investors are in.

It gets worse. Rolling over to the new futures contract doubles the opportunity for the professionals to profit. If, having just sold at a discount, lots of private investors are rolling forward to buy the new futures contract for the next quarter then that future will offer the professionals a premium over the smooth forward curve, and the professional will willingly sell it to them as soon as the premium is sufficient to make it profitable.

So you see even when private investors are offered rollover at apparently attractive terms (e.g. at middle prices and half the commission) the reality is that they are selling the old at a discount and buying the new at a premium. Wherever your trade is in the same direction as a large number of market participants who lack the ability to run their position until settlement you will probably lose out in this subtle way.

This is where the artificiality of futures wrings profit out of un-sophisticated investors who wish to speculate. Who's to blame? It's hard to accuse a seller of price manipulation when he runs his two month old trade to settlement, and it's very hard to blame the opportunist professional buyer for supporting a low price by buying at a discount at expiry! The only people who can really be blamed for the expiry and rollover costs are the people who bought futures without both the money and the storage facilities to settle, and that's usually those private investors who are its victims; which is ironic.

That's futures, and it's ultimately each investor's own choice. If you choose to play you are dealing in a marketplace which may force you to trade at the time of your maximum disadvantage.

At BullionVault our position is that you might cautiously use futures for short term speculation. But we think you'd do better to avoid them for long term capital preservation, which for many is what buying gold is about.

Instead, you should choose physical gold through services like ours, where there are no artificial barriers placed in the way of smoothly continuous trading and settlement. All you need to do to avoid an unfair price dip in futures at expiry is buy the real thing, and although that's difficult with pork-bellies, with gold it's easy.


http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/tustain/2010/0421.html



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hawkwind



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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2010 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Let's watch the market (sic) in action ...

Quote:
Gold and Goldman Sachs

By Patrick A. Heller
April 20, 2010

Last Friday, after all foreign gold trading markets had closed for the weekend, the Securities and Exchange Commission filed civil fraud charges against Goldman Sachs Group. The basic charge was that Goldman Sachs was assisting investor John Paulson to take short positions in collateralize debt obligations at the same time that it was promoting long positions in these same assets to other investors.

Upon the announcement, the price of gold quickly dropped almost $30, more than 2 percent. Although the assets involved in the charge had nothing to do with gold, John Paulsons firm, Paulson & Co., is the largest investor in GLD, the largest gold exchange traded fund. Several months ago, Paulson also established a fund to invest directly in physical gold. Rumors quickly circulated that Paulson might be forced to sell some of his gold position.

The timing of the SEC announcement is highly suspicious. The SEC had been investigating Goldman Sachs since 2008. The company, in a statement issued later Friday, claimed to be surprised that charges were filed, as normally the SEC reviews pending charges with the company before going public with them. In addition, the SEC normally informs targets of investigation in advance when it will be filing any charges. On the surface, it looks like the SEC might have taken action without following these standard practices.

If so, why?

There are at least two significant reasons why the SEC may have decided to press charges Friday morning. First, the prices of gold and silver had been strong on Wednesday and Thursday and were threatening to surpass resistance levels at $1,160 and $18.50, respectively. The U.S. government needed some major development on Friday to prevent a further rise in precious metals prices. Filing the charges against Goldman Sachs may have been something that was being held until the right moment, with last Friday being the day it came in useful.

Another possible reason why the charges may have been filed last Friday was to deflect attention from another story that put the SEC in a bad light. Shortly after charges were filed against Goldman Sachs, the results of an investigation into why the SEC waited from 1997 until 2009 to prosecute Texas financier R. Allen Stanford for running a Ponzi type of scam. The report revealed that SEC examiners concluded four times between 1997 and 2004 that Stanfords businesses were fraudulent and pushed for prosecution. In particular, the report singles out Spencer Barasch, who was then the head of the SECs enforcement office in Fort Worth for quashing these four investigations. Barasch later entered private practice and tried to represent Stanford for legal matters.

If the SEC had not charged Goldman Sachs on Friday, the headlines would have touted how the SEC failed Stanfords investors, just like it failed to protect investors in the Madoff scandal, among others. So, the SEC may have had an interest in smothering the bad news by appearing to be on top of the wrongdoing by Goldman Sachs.

The charges against Goldman Sachs may turn out to be the big story that I had been waiting to break. At the beginning of this year, I forecast that some major news development would spark the price of gold to rise above its early December 2009 record high (ignoring inflation). I expected this to happen before the end of March, but recently pushed back the time frame by one month.

Why would these charges against Goldman Sachs, which are now just charges and a long way from turning into a conviction, be such positive news for gold?

The charges against Goldman Sachs for this one instance is for actions that are similar to what this company and pretty much all major brokerages/banks do on a regular basis. Goldman Sachs could be subject to many more such suits in the coming months for other paper assets it bought and sold. Every other brokerage firm would be liable for similar suits.

Already, the German government is investigating to see whether it has a claim for damages against Goldman Sachs. German officials would like to reclaim funds the government paid out to rescue one of that countrys banks from losses sustained for owning assets over which Goldman Sachs is being sued. The shareholders of Goldman Sachs could sue the company for misconduct that resulted in the companys stock value declining 13 percent last Friday. Other investors in similar Goldman Sachs assets could file suit for their losses. Robert Khuzami, the SEC enforcement chief, stated Friday that the SEC is investigating other mortgage investments sold by Goldman Sachs and other companies.

If a large number of lawsuits end up being filed over various paper assets, that will generally destroy investor confidence and trust in paper assets such as stocks, bonds and currencies. As the value of paper assets drops, you will almost certainly see an increase in demand for tangible assets like gold and silver.

Goldman Sachs has a lot political of clout, with so many of its former staff holding high positions in the U.S. government. For instance, right now former Goldman Sachs officials hold the positions of chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Gary Gensler) and Treasury Department Chief of Staff (Mark Patterson). Other recent Goldman Sachs alumni include former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and former Assistant Treasury Secretary Neel T. Kashari. Kashari led the Office of Financial Stability that bought up the troubled financial assets, such as those over which charges were filed against Goldman Sachs. Paulson and Kashari held their positions at the time the SEC began their investigations of Goldman Sachs. For the U.S. government to allow charges to be filed against this company in such an abrupt manner, and despite having so many friends on the inside, makes me suspicious that Goldman Sachs and its shareholders are being sacrificed, similar to the fate that befell Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers.

Last Friday, after the SECs announcement, customers flooded our phone lines and hurried to our store to buy physical gold and silver. The buyers were not taking time to think about it, they just jumped into action. Retail demand was so strong that our silver sales, as measured in U.S. dollars, were the second highest for any day in the past 30 years. Our gold sales climbed into the top five for any day in the past 30 years. Combined, our retail sales last Friday were the second highest of any day in the past 30 years.

From Feb. 26 through April 16, 16.7 million ounces of physical silver were withdrawn from the SLV silver exchange traded fund. This is an unusually large quantity of withdrawals compared to the previous two years activity. Normally, this quantity of physical silver hitting the market would result in falling prices. Instead, the price of silver rose by more than 10 percent as of the date the Goldman Sachs charges were filed. The pressure is mounting.

The next round of gold and silver options contracts to expire will do so next week, on April 27 and 28. The U.S. government really needs the price of silver to close on the COMEX below $18 on those days in order to avoid a runaway price explosion. The gold market looks more precarious than ever before, with a significant potential for large price increases very soon. Prepare yourself for an exciting next few weeks.


http://numismaster.com/ta/numis/Article.jsp?ad=article&ArticleId=10122






- Hawk Wink

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Fintan
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PostPosted: Tue May 18, 2010 6:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I posted this elsewhere, but this is the right thread for it.

Bill Murphy V. Jeff Christian Gold Market Rigging Debate is here:

http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/fsn2010-0515-2.mp3

1 Hour. Good moderator, Sharp debate, No holds barred. Xclnt.

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Fintan
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PostPosted: Wed May 19, 2010 12:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

China Gold Rush.

Quote:

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PostPosted: Tue May 25, 2010 6:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yesterday Sprott was on a roll in this audio
on the current state of the NWO Economy
and gold prospects:


Quote:



LISTEN:
Broadband Mp3 Audio
http://BreakForNews.com/audio/EricSprott-10-05-24.mp3
Click to Play or Right-Click to 'Save As' and Download.

Via: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eric-sprott-financial-farcism

Today, Sprott put his money where his mouth is,
announcing plans to buy 6 metric tonnes of gold
valued around $235 Million:


Quote:
Sprott Physical Gold Trust

TSX: PHY.U NYSE: PHYS

May 25, 2010 16:34 ET

Sprott Physical Gold Trust Announces
Follow-On Offering of 18,000,000 Trust Units


TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - May 25, 2010) - Sprott Physical Gold Trust (the "Trust") (TSX:PHY.U)(NYSE:PHYS), a trust created to invest and hold substantially all of its assets in physical gold bullion and managed by Sprott Asset Management LP, announced today that it plans a follow-on offering to the public (the "Offering") of 18,000,000 transferable, redeemable units of the Trust ("Units"). As part of the Offering, the Trust expects to grant the underwriters an over-allotment option to purchase up to 2,700,000 additional Units.

The Trust intends to use the net proceeds of this Offering to acquire physical gold bullion in accordance with the Trust's objective and subject to the Trust's investment and operating restrictions described in the prospectus related to this Offering. Under the trust agreement governing the Trust, the net proceeds of the Offering per unit must be not less than 100% of the most recently calculated net asset value per Unit of the Trust prior to, or upon determination of, pricing of the offering.

The Units are listed on the NYSE Arca and the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbols "PHYS" and "PHY.U", respectively. The Offering will be made simultaneously in the United States and Canada through a syndicate of underwriters led by Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets in the United States and RBC Capital Markets and Morgan Stanley in Canada.
Copies of the U.S. prospectus related to this Offering may be obtained by contacting Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, 180 Varick Street, 2nd Floor, New York, New York 10014 Attention: Prospectus Department (telephone 866-718-1649 (toll free) or 917-606-8474) or by e-mailing prospectus@morganstanley.com, or RBC Capital Markets Corporation, Attention: Prospectus Department, Three World Financial Center, 200 Vesey Street, 8th floor, New York, New York 10281-8098 (telephone: 212-428-6670, fax: 212-428-6260).

This news release does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the Units, nor shall there be any sale of the Units in any state or jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such jurisdiction.

Additional details on the Trust can be found in the final prospectus available on EDGAR (www.edgar.com) and SEDAR (www.sedar.com) or on the Trust's website at www.sprottphysicalgoldtrust.com.

http://www.marketwire.com/18000000-Trust-Units-TSX-PHY.U-1266136.htm

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:

Blood on the Street earlier today, but the
single index in green color says it all....

DOW back down under 10,000 again, eh?

The new normal.......

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MichaelC



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 30, 2010 2:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

My perma-bear Dutch friend (the one who made 500,000 euros riding the market down with puts in 2008) is continually beseaching me to sell everything and go total cash plus a few puts.
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