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Audio: Green Shoots of US Great Depression
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curious george



Joined: 19 Aug 2009
Posts: 363

PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 7:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

not the vid intended but still worth a listen.....

http://vodpod.com/watch/2067256-robert-prechter-says-dollars-hit-a-major-bottom



MoneyBob added this video and said
Forget all the talk about the dollar being in terminal decline. The recent rally in the greenback is for real, says Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International. The man who correctly predicted the 1987 crash and last year's peak in oil prices now says we're "going to be up for a year or two in the dollar."

Reuters and other mainstream news outlets attribute the recent uptick in the dollar versus other major currencies to an improving economy signaled by Friday's "stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs numbers." Prechter, ever the contrarian, says the U.S. dollar has put in a major bottom but not for the reasons everyone else is pointing to.
Aug
17

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bri



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PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 7:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This one?

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bri



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PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 7:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

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curious george



Joined: 19 Aug 2009
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 7:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

thanks Bri...thats the one
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curious george



Joined: 19 Aug 2009
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 7:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hahehahe....Dont an economic girlyman!

that sorta stuff used to make me crazy as I believed that they knew what they were doing as they were just extending the debt party way past last call and into a sunrise accompanied with a hellatious hangover.

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atm



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PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 9:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Let's just fucking face it. We are fucked and this ain't no fiction. Fuck.


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curious george



Joined: 19 Aug 2009
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 27, 2009 12:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hilarious ATM:P Laughing

....however the devils advocate in me questions whether getting Fucked is such a bad thing...actually looks fun and stimulating-seen the pictures...hehe!...hell it helped make me me;0)

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Fintan
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Joined: 18 Jan 2006
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 27, 2009 7:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
curious george:
Robert Prector.... is in allignment with your fall in the 09 fall time
horizon yet he speaks of Dollar bottom and stock market top.

You spotted the simplification I did in the audio.
My main focus was on key fundamentals, but
yes there is another level to all this which I
can best express with the question:

Is the NWO too Big to Fail?

From another perspective:

Quote:
Because the central banks of the world has flipped the lever on the printing presses and the global economy is drowning in liquidity. The new game in town is to get hold of printing press money, preferably first and to convert it into a "store of value"......

Are all these people really stupid? Were they stupid when they flipped houses? No, they were and are riding the wave of massive debt formation (then) and liquidity formation (now)......

Understanding the inflations of the printing press requires an understanding that inflation will express where the printing press money ends up. Meat and potatoes prices will inflate if the money ends up in meat and potatoes. House prices will inflate if the money flows via debt formation into houses. Zero interest rates, Quantitative Easing and unlimited liquidity drive investors out of money and into stores of value. The inflation goes with the flow. Follow the flow to identify the inflation.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/oberholster082309.html

For more on this try:

Quote:
Rope to the Hyper-Inflationalists

....the current period is a higher inertia (secular) shift to hyper-deflation,
which can not support a multi-year rise in stocks-- only a choice for the
banksters between hyper-deflation or hyper-inflation
. Throwing some
rope to the hyper-inflationists, then yanking it, is the likely choice.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/moore082609.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13025.html

Quote:
Dow & US Dollar Fire Alarms Ringing

Would that crash be accompanied by an intermediate rise in the US
dollar, or will it be accompanied by a dollar wipeout and gold moonshot?

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Thomson/aug252009.html


Quote:
U.S. Housing Market Bottoming, Stocks Soaring, is the Crisis Over?

...this reminds me of the fiscal mess Brazil and other less developed
countries faced in those days. How ironic it is that the U.S. and Western
Europe are now in the same fiscal rat hole and the same debt trap that
those countries were in for many decades!....

in the 1950 and 1960s, we had people who worked. And they had every incentive to work hard. Today, we have neither the people nor the incentive. In sum, the two most important long-term drivers of growth are absent in the U.S. and Western Europe today!

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12966.html


See also:
Quote:

http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Bell%20Curve%20Economics.html

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1367-Here-Comes-THE-JUDGE-UPDATED.html

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duane



Joined: 07 Mar 2007
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Location: western pennsylvania

PostPosted: Thu Aug 27, 2009 7:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

click on link to see video
i find it amusing (or sad) that these guys always are looking at " the market" as if it was some sort of god or superior being that's always right, rather than the work of a bunch of crooks.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/312114/%22In-the-Tank-Forever%22-U.S.-Consumers-Retailers-in-a-%22Death-Spiral%22-Davidowitz-Says?tickers=dltr,fdo,ndn,kss,xrt,WMT,CVS&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

Retailers in a "Death Spiral," Davidowitz Says
Posted Aug 27, 2009 07:30am EDT by Peter Gorenstein
Related: dltr, fdo, spy, kss, xrt, WMT, CVS

Retail maven Howard Davidowitz paid another visit to Tech Ticker this week. And despite signs of improvement in consumer confidence and retail stocks rising, Davidowitz is steadfast in his belief the consumer is dead.

Rather than summarize, let me just highlight some of his best one-liners:
On retail:

* "The retail business is terrible... It's almost all negative."
* "We're going to close hundreds of thousands of stores."

On the consumer:

* "They’re still over leveraged, they're losing jobs, their credit has been cut back."

On America:

* "We are in the tank forever. As a country we are out of control, we're in a death spiral."

On the stock market:

* "We're in terrible shape. That's what the fundamentals tell me. I can't explain the stock market."

But it's not all gloom and doom, believe it or not. Davidowitz, who runs a retail consulting firm Davidowitz and Associates, thinks certain discount retailers, grocers, drug store chains and a select few department stores can survive and prosper in the future.

Most notably he likes the "extreme discounters" like Family Dollar, Dollar Tree (which was up almost 5% Tuesday after the company raised its outlook) and 99 Cents Only Stores. And, in the department store sector, he says, Kohl's will "be the only winner" because of their cost controls. (Davidowitz has no positions in stocks mentioned.)

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bri



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PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 12:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fuck...

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LelaBear



Joined: 20 Oct 2008
Posts: 102
Location: Austin, TX

PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bri wrote:
Fuck...


Absolutely nauseating! Too bad they don't give out acting awards to politicians, he certainly deserves as much credit as Sean Penn for his skill in regurgitating whatever scripted lines he is handed.

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Fintan
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Disgusting and unconvincing performance by Geitner.
He had no defense to questions about the incestuous
network of bWankers running the US "economy".

Meanwhile a new report out by Jim Willie
describes the gruesome realities. I don't
buy Willie entirely due to some past claims,
and his relentless gold promos.
But it's hard to argue with this:

Quote:
US Bank Enemies At The Gates
Jim Willie CB
August 27, 2009

While all manner of attention remains transfixed inside the United States on a remedy and recovery of its bank sector, once again Americans make dangerous assumptions. They tend to assume that the US Federal Reserve near 0% interest rates, Quantitative Easing (aka exploding Printing Pre$$ output), endless liquidity facilities (e.g. TALF), TARP funds (aka Wall Street slush fund), Stress Tests (rigged), bank stock sales (aided by FASB accounting fraud), bank carry trades (exploiting low short-term & higher long-term rates), and the passage of time can revive the US banking industry. They tend domestically to overlook the gradually worsening insolvency condition. Banks are bracing for a new wave of commercial mortgage losses, of prime Option ARMortgage losses, and credit card losses. The delinquency rate of prime Option ARMs is now higher than subprime home loans!!

Harken back to the summer 2007 when the hack USFed Chairman Bernanke called the bank crisis merely a subprime problem with upper limit potential for $200 billion in bank losses, and no risk of spilling over to the real USEconomy, and surely not the cause of any recession. Bernanke has understood next to nothing in advance, all forecasts hopelessly wrong, but is a great manager of the Printing Pre$$ Operation. So he is loved. This half blind man now is due for reappointment to USFed Chairman post, his past failure the qualifications for future service. The same is true of Treasury Secy Geithner, whose failure at the New York Fed was his qualification for current service. The approval of Bernanke is sure to cause a major rift with the Chinese credit masters. Their wishes and warnings have been ignored. Their vengeance is next.

The American perspective is almost always very limited in scope, due to chronic arrogance and delusions of grandeur. Their convenient parochial view tends to focus almost entirely within the United States, its bank leadership, its USFed monetary flexibility, its Wall Street syndicate influence, its federal tax latitude, its bank reserves management, and more. THE REAL THREAT TO US BANKS COMES FROM ENEMIES AT THE GATES, FOREIGN CREDITORS. The dangerous assumption made is that foreign creditors will remain firm and loyal. The arrogance extends from the continued belief that they have no choice, even if the trillion$ frauds on Wall Street occurred, even though such frauds were never prosecuted.

The real threat comes from foreign creditors who must contend with challenges greater than ever experienced, such as:
Shrinking or vanished trade surpluses during global slowdown
Their own financial systems in tatters (banks, stock & bonds, currencies)
Vast regional construction booms gone bust (e.g. Dubai)
Numerous nationwide housing bubbles gone bust
Gathering storm from the need to liquidate insolvent banks
Reserves erosion due to over-weight in US$-based bonds
Systemic problems extended from a generation of USDollar reliance.

UAE & CHINA

Take just two important examples, the Persian Gulf and China. Other regions bloated with USTreasurys exist, like Europe and Russia, eager to unload them in what soon could become a torrent. The regional construction boom in the Arab world has an epicenter in Dubai. Unfortunately, it has gone bust, and loudly so. If not for the prompt aid by Abu Dhabi bankers, a vast liquidation of Dubai would have embarrassed them in front of the world. Instead, a new threat comes. The Abu Dhabi rescue next must contend with an indigestion problem, as USTreasurys and likely other US$-based bonds are flooding their banking system. They might own a considerable batch of US bank stocks, soon to be dumped. Ambition led to a whiff of hubris, as fantastic architectural design led to large scope, seen in the skyscrapers and bridges. Not shown are the spectacular communities designed as trees with branches and leaf petals, many empty, busted, and without investment income. But they overdid it, and now must deal with corporate failures and liquidation challenges. But the Persian Gulf bank failures represent the clear and present threat. The outsized projects have yielded to outsized rescues and next outsized indigestion to handle the funds in ways so as to avoid a string of national bank failures. Vast liquidations come, word comes from contacts.


A bank panic in the Persian Gulf could ensue very soon, a back door threat. It would clearly have origins in the United Arab Emirates, spread to the entire Persian Gulf like to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and elsewhere. From this global toehold, the bank panic could then spread to London, New York, and points in Europe. The UAE bankers must manage their situation. They are loaded to the gills with USTreasurys, the main currency used in the liquidations and rescues local to the UAE. They also have pet stock accounts in big US banks. As further liquidations occur, avoidance of bank failures seems a remote prospect. Watch the enemies at the gates, outside looking in, in urgent need of dumping USTreasury Bonds and other US$-denominated securities.

China must contend with some unique problems. From 2000 to 2005, they insisted on a rigid currency structure of the Yuan pegged firmly to the USDollar. In doing so, they became the 51st state, yoked firmly to the USEconomy and subject completely to the USFed monetary policy. Yet they had no voting rights on USDollar policy. Ironically, now they do as chief creditor nation. Nobody thought twice about accumulation of Chinese debt to replace US income. It was the insane movement known as the 'Low Cost Solution' at the time, a policy that the great majority accepted as the next chapter of progress in the Globalization movement, a policy based in corporate abandonment of US shores. Some, like the Jackass and other analysts on some of these gold journal websites, gave loud warning of a time bomb in construction certain to explode down the road. We are now down the road, reaping the bitter rotten harvest of the latest Economic Myth chapter.

China is experiencing a 40%+ decline in export trade. They have a mammoth $550+ billion stimulus plan that might have run its course. They have banks that are failing on a low level. Their stimulus might have found its way as much to their Shanghai stock market as to bank lending. Their industrial expansion is primarily linked to global trade and the export markets. As much as they would like to generate internal demand, it cannot prevent over 1000 industrial plants from shutdown, already done. More are to come. They respond with Yuan-based swap facilities in numerous foreign lands, but that can only accomplish so much in export markets. China is actively attempting to diversify its reserves. The reality (not a joke) is that they are trying to cobble together 2000 different $1 billion deals to secure hard assets in exchange for USTreasury Bonds, enough to dump their $2000 billion US$-based hoard at risk. They are acquiring stakes in foreign mining firms, stakes in mining projects, and entire properties. They are cutting fewer but larger energy deals, which include development of infrastructure and communities. The inescapable fact of life is that China has embarked on an USTreasury dumping initiative. They are even acquiring industrial property in Europe, unloading up to $10 billion per month in USTBonds. This aids the Euro Central Bank, stuck with too much bad debt from its southern member nations. They are dealing with the impaired debt from PIGS nations by means of vast commercial and industrial property sales. Discounts are being seen for both the USDollar and British Pound Sterling. Details are in the August Hat Trick Letter Gold & Currency Report.

FDIC DESPERATION UNMASKED

Loan loss reserves at US banks are at a shockingly miserable low level. They not only hide their badly impaired (ruined) credit assets, but they inadequately furnish their loan loss reserve accounts. Notice the trend in coverage ratio for loss reserves (in red) that trends down down down. Filling the loan loss reserves eats into stated earnings, a process forbidden if bank stock prices are to continue up up up. Resolution is sought. Bold lies about their shaky condition works at both ends. It is very difficult to give an accurate number of the failed US banks, when more are failing every week, on an accelerated basis. The failures of Colonial and Guaranty rocked the bank sector in the last two weeks, enough to set back the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp by over $5 billion. Their fund is dead broke. They already raised bank fees once this year, and are likely to do so again. That should crimp bank lending, in reports out just today. The declared official list of troubled banks stands at 416. Surely, the true number is closer to 1000.


The FDIC has responded in two ways. They have opened the door for foreign financial firms to rescue the growing list of insolvent US banks, taking equity in exchange for infused funds as capital. This is unprecedented. Could this be due to the general insolvency of the great majority of big US banks? Yes! The FDIC also announced it might appeal to the USCongress for more funds, sure to spark heavy debate. The FDIC is designed to be a self-sufficient company, but it is a basket case instead. Worse, the FDIC head Sheila Bair, despite her valiant resistance to the USDept Treasury lordship, has its own ethical problems. The FDIC has avoided bank shutdowns on a broad basis. They have thus permitted losing situations to grow much worse. Case in point is the Colonial asset portfolio, some of which are to be liquidated at 65% losses. Where was the FDIC several months ago? The answer is not pretty. The FDIC in my opinion has acted as the new investment banker agent for Wall Street. They have not shut down banks and liquidated them. They rather seek to feed assets to the Wall Street firms and thus avert more FDIC fund drainage. The FDIC has, like in courtship matchmaking, delivered insolvent midsized banks to the Wall Street syndicate for ready processing and grand asset raids. The FDIC has not done its job. Many more US banks are set to fall like flies in the summer Texas heat, almost all at once. The estimate of 150 or 200 US banks likely to fail soon, stated by Rochdale Securities analyst Dick Bove, is a gross under-statement, a very conservative low estimate, convenient for political circles, a pipedream on Main Street. He was brave to make the statement, and took heat.

USTREASURY AUCTION DECEPTION

The deception continues, worth mentioning regularly, worth harping on. THE REMOVAL OF PILLARS FROM BENEATH THE USDOLLAR FOUNDATION CONTINUES, INVITING A VIOLENT RESPONSE BY FOREIGN CREDITORS. The degree of monetization is staggering for USTreasurys. Issuance must be covered by the US$ Printing Pre$$ machinery, since the USGovt requires up to 7% of the entire global economy (its size, not its savings) to match that issuance. The USFed monetizes with Permanent Open Market Operations quickly after auctions, thus hiding their motive to monetize debt. Debt securities are taken by the primary bond dealers, only to find their way quickly to the USFed on their Permanent Portfolio. If the USFed bought them directly at auction, a firestorm of controversy would result immediately. Instead, the credit market observers are totally asleep at the wheel, or more likely badly compromised. CHINESE LEADERS SURELY NOTICE. This practice has come out into the open. Zero Hedge is on top of it, like expert sleuths. See their latest exposure data, the USFed's dirty little secret entitled "$270 Billion Of POMOs To Date Running Ahead Of Schedule" (CLICK HERE)


The USFed established a gigantic Dollar Swap Facility. Last September 2008, it expanded this facility from $290 billion to $620 billion in order to enable a rush into the USTreasurys. The same $Swap Facility enables hidden monetization now, as foreign accounts chock filled with borrowed USDollars (in blue) bid on USTreasurys (in red). The USFed expanded balance sheet is also shown (in yellow). This is an old chart, but it makes the point well. Historically, monetization results in a severe devaluation of the inherent currency being debauched. This time will be no different.


Before showing a gold chart, something bears mention. USTreasurys are the current raging bubble, consuming wealth on a global scale. This represents a rush into bad money, soon to be recognized as a Third World Debt security. It is being actively discounted by cash currency intermediaries, in the unofficial restructuring of debt taking place. This is NOT in the financial news. However, a greater pox is evident. In the last couple weeks, a truly perverse phenomenon has begun to show itself, a rush into the worst junk imaginable. The stock rally in AIG, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac has taken root. They are seeing quite a runup in stock share values. Details are eye-opening. Since July, AIG has gone from 10 to 40 per share, Fannie Mae (FNM) from 0.5 to 1.7 per share, Freddie Mac (FRE) from 0.5 to 2.0 per share. Including Citigroup, a dead walking giant, this group accounts for 20% or more of the entire NYSE trading volume. THIS IS A RUSH TO JUNK. This is an end stage, just like in 1999 when WebMD.com was a hot stock with no income, priced on clicks and eyeballs.

The movement of chasing the worst quality stock issues brings to memory the famous quote by Sir Thomas Gresham in the 16th Century. He said, "Bad money drives out good money." It does so on a temporary basis, while the craze continues, while the denial is rooted, while the propaganda prevails. But real money emerges triumphant after the inevitable crisis that ensues. THAT REAL MONEY IS GOLD, ALONG WITH SILVER, EVEN PLATINUM.

GOLD STILL AT THE DOORSTEP

Many complain that the gold price cannot seem to overcome the important $1000 mark. It is true, the mark is stubborn. But $1000 gold would still be dirt cheap, given the flood of money on a global basis. The reasons why it should be overcome are growing a long list, and the gold price has a very firm support. The wizards did not enjoy the taste of a big single-day move up last Friday August 21st. The Powerz came out guns blazing on the following Monday to eradicate the gain. The 50-day moving average has provided reasonably strong support in the last month or more. Both it and the 200-day moving average are rising, a trend signal.

Pressures continue to mount. Surely impatience comes to many faithful gold investors, in whatever form (stocks, bullion, coins). The gold breakout will come suddenly, without warning. In my view it could easily come from ENEMIES AT THE GATE, foreign creditors responding to their own stress. It might come from a domestic shock from any of 20 potential events also. The US financial press gives the foreign front very limited coverage. When the breakout occurs, the gold price will vault past 1050 in a screaming move. The press will tell the wrong story, focusing again on domestic factors within the USEconomy, like price inflation, as they miss the importance of the USDollar. While prices might be due to rise in surprising fashion soon, the real issue is the global monetary crisis centered upon the USDollar. Foreign reserves are over 60%, nearly 65% in USTreasurys. The glut will be relieved before long. The fire sale comes, and afterwards the United States will suffer.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/willie082709.html

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