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Audio: Green Shoots of US Great Depression
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silverthread



Joined: 27 May 2009
Posts: 264
Location: USA

PostPosted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 2:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah Red Mahna___
Have No Fear ___

It's Not my Forecast...
but like I Said :


"G-Forces ;
after 10-20 yrs of research ,
Frank Feather__ foreCast R- current 2009 'Recession'...in 1989.
[i.e. hmmm...let's see :
2009 minus 1989 = an ACCURATE Forecast 20 yrs Out ! ]

So ,
Kondrateiff & Schumpeter...

knew what they were talkin' bout. " Exclamation Laughing Exclamation

P.S.
check-Out the 2 frank feather videos in my above-post Exclamation

P.P.S.
Frank Feather , ALSO mentions :
'If usa economy is to recover in Spring of 2010....
Then stock-market will Anticipate that by :
3-6 months."

[I.E. in October 2009 Or January 2010] Wink

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Fintan
Site Admin


Joined: 18 Jan 2006
Posts: 8121

PostPosted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 5:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for the feedback folks.

Quote:
LelaBear:
Did you see this article yet, from John Galt's blog called The Eye of the Storm.

Didn't see that one, but, yeah he's on to it.
He even gets this one:

Quote:
1. Iran - Israel will not sit by idly waiting on the Messiah to ‘talk’ to them, they will act. Fall would be the perfect time as the Iranian defenses should be exhausted from all the probing.

I've written about that:

Quote:
Israel Readies to Rescue Ahmadinejahd
Friday, July 17, 2009
http://fintandunnenews.blogspot.com/2009/07/israel-readies-to-rescue-ahmadinejahd.html


Quote:
RedMahna:
nice banks finish last... same exact scenario in the last "great depression."

Lol. Con-sol-i-dation baby.
The ol' "boom-bust" is such a well-worn method of tentacle extension.

Quote:
Alchemist:
still knowledge is power right?

It's Everything. All movement with no map is circular.

Quote:
GaryGo:
Ah stuff this!!!!! We're all doomed.

Fake money was blinding people. Now maybe we can make real progress.

Quote:
James D:
"Fuck you!" Dude! So what should we do? Like, specific

What pisses me off is peole who know damm well what's going down and
just sit on the sidelines scratching their asses, bitchin' and using up some
valuable air with no focus or real effort to counter the NWO.

As to what specifically to do, that would take a whole 'nother audio.
Maybe I'll do one.

Quote:
silverthread:
Yet , I don't really buy Into.... your Interpretation of economic-data.

I'm aware of the transcendant elements in the situation, but the data is
real, even though we are indeed the future-shock of the Third wave
sweeping the second-wave NWO aside. I don't see the US economy
recovering in 2010? I've studied Kondratieff but not spent much time
on Schumpeter. I'll check him out.

Quote:
arkestra:
Fintan..... has his answer, his perspective. We have our own answers,
our own responses, our own ideas. Fintan is not a leader.

Exactly. Everybody's got some area of interest or talent where they can
help move things forward. Dogged persistence is a real virtue.

And yeah, leadership sucks. It encourages people to sit back and let the
'Leader' fix it all, and it stifles equal contributions from all.

Quote:
arkestra:
Its the end of ideology? Leadership? a dawning of the collectivity of
creativity, a resilience to domination? a flowering of ideas forming a rich
tapestry of consciousness, coexisting without beaurocracy and its grey
veined inane office cubicles infecting all of our cities like a virus on its
last legs, tired of itself, tired of its parasitic existence.

Yeah, it all of that. Well said.

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GaryGo



Joined: 18 Nov 2008
Posts: 713

PostPosted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 5:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

atm wrote:
In a padded cell, that is not an option.

Bat atm Man


Padded Cell? Bloody Luxury
I used to dream a living in a padded cell - I have to live in a Septic Tank in a serial killers garden


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atm



Joined: 16 Apr 2006
Posts: 3862

PostPosted: Sun Aug 23, 2009 11:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

More bovine excrement:

Quote:


Major tests lie beyond 2009 as UK wary of sting in recession's tail

By Angela Monaghan
Published: 7:03PM BST 23 Aug 2009

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6077726/Major-tests-lie-beyond-2009-as-UK-wary-of-sting-in-recessions-tail.html

While the rest of the world is preparing for a post-recession party as growth returns to some of the biggest economies, the UK is still in sober mood.

Some of the most powerful policy-makers in the world, not least Ben Bernanke, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, have declared the beginning of the end of the global recession.

Not so in the UK, where Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, has played down recovery, focusing instead on threats that remain.

The sobering message applies the world over: recovery may have started, but the major tests lie beyond 2009, when stimuli are unwound and consumers may not have the appetite, or the capacity, to spend.

Without doubt the picture is rosier now than it was at the beginning of the year.

Out of the blocks first in the global race for growth were Japan, Germany and France, which all reported expansion for the second quarter. Lagging behind were the US, Italy and the UK, where the economy shrank by 0.8pc in the second quarter, the most of the major economies,

So the UK is playing catch up, with growth at home expected to resume in the third quarter. As Simon Hayes, economist at Barclays, puts it: “The recovery is spreading.”

However, while growth elsewhere is good for sentiment, it does not necessarily have a significant or direct impact on prospects for the UK economy.

There is still hope that a broader rebound in activity abroad will drive a significant increase in UK exports, and help to lift it out of recession, as the relative weakness of the pound makes the country’s goods more competitive.

Japan, however, is not one of the UK’s key export markets. Germany and France are important export markets for the UK, but so far there has been no evidence to suggest that recovery there is boosting demand for British goods.

“The common factor in all three G7 economies that grew again in Q2 was a large positive contribution from external trade, with imports falling in every case. This is positive for GDP in these countries but not much use to anyone else,” said economists at Capital Economists.

There can be no certainty yet of course that the German and French economies did actually grow in the second quarter, as the numbers so far have only been initial estimates.

There were raised eyebrows among the senior echelons at the Bank England when the growth figures were published. Adam Posen, who will join the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee next month, said he had been “surprised” by the news.

Where growth did occur, economists at Capital Economists are underwhelmed. “It was never very likely that the G7 economies would continue shrinking as fast as they once were. Given this context, the recovery is much less impressive,” they said in a note.

Back in the UK, the emphasis is still very much on caution. Earlier this month the MPC voted to pump an extra £50bn into the economy, extending its quantitative easing scheme to £175bn. A vote of no confidence, it would seem, in the economy, just as the market believed things were picking up.

What is increasingly unclear, both for those ahead and behind in the race to recovery, is how long-lasting recovery will be. “The fear is that once monetary and fiscal stimulus winds down, recovery will be on very shaky ground,” economists at Barclays Capital said in a note.

“We see the Japanese economy hitting a soft patch in the first half of 2010, as private consumption and public investment recoil after earlier stimulus-induced front-loading.”

The same applies elsewhere. “Some of the recent stabilisation in activity likely reflects temporary factors,” said Colin Ellis, economist at Daiwa Securities. “In particular, in the cases of France and Germany, the car scrappage schemes that have encouraged households to bring forward consumption.

These have offered some support to spending and production.

But as the schemes expire, households will have to face up to high and rising unemployment and weak earnings.”

Fiscal consolidation in the UK, where national debt is already approaching 60pc of GDP, is inevitable.

So while the economy may be on the verge of growth, consumers face the unsavoury combination of tax rises, spending cuts, rising interest rates, and high levels of unemployment as the recession leaves scars on the economy.

The emergence from recession may not be so sweet after all. The hope now is that global recovery does not prove to be a false start.

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James D



Joined: 16 Dec 2006
Posts: 955

PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 9:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The way forward?
Quote:

Italian banks may take ham and wine as collateral
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/aug/19/italy-food-wine-banks-collateral

Italian bank vaults may soon resemble well stocked delicatessens if a plan goes ahead to accept expensive wines and dry-cured hams as collateral on bank loans from crisis-hit producers.
...
"Apart from meeting the need of companies for liquidity, this proposal also recognises that our true gold reserves are the excellent products we make in Italy," he said.

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duane



Joined: 07 Mar 2007
Posts: 554
Location: western pennsylvania

PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 2:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

now some news from the "fair and balanced " side

i guess when everyone has been laid off and only a few remain on the unemployment roles, they might be about 7.5% of the population.

maybe we should asked him to send everyone whatever he's been smokin



http://www.opednews.com/articles/Unemployment---Yes-I-bet-by-Steven-Leser-090822-160.html



Promoted to Headline (H3) on 8/22/09:
Unemployment – Yes I bet 7.5% or lower by August 22, 2010

by Steven Leser Page 1 of 1 page(s)

www.opednews.com



Talking heads make a lot of predictions. I remember a lot of conservative talking heads in early to mid 2008 predicting the economy would continue to be strong throughout the rest of that year. In contrast, I made the following predictions on April 2, 2008:

I see a Dow in the 7000-9000 range, the S&P 500 struggling to stay over the 1000 mark and a NASDAQ in the 1400-1600 range. I see unemployment and inflation both between fifteen to twenty five percent. I see many consumers defaulting on their credit cards and the major crisis in the banking and lending industry will be compounded by hordes of consumers defaulting on their credit cards. As a result of these credit card defaults, more banks will fail and major banking insurers will fail as a result as well as investment funds and securities that are based on credit card debt. I believe there will be consumer and corporate bankruptcies on a massive scale.

--------------------------------------

All of this came true except for the unemployment rate, and the reason that unemployment did not reach that high is because of government intervention in the crisis by both Presidents over the past 10-12 months. Recall, however, regarding my predictions that at the time I made them, the Dow was at 12626, the S&P was at 1370 and the Nasdaq was at 2279.

Today, on the Fox News' show “Cashin' In”, I bet that in one year, unemployment will be at or below 7.5%. I backed up that bet with some serious, albeit humorous (for everyone but me, I assure you) potential consequences. We'll get back to the consequences in a moment. Most people, including those folks at Cashin' In off camera immediately after I made the prediction, have been asking me why I think that unemployment will get to such a comparatively low figure in only 12 months. Few if any other people are predicting this.

There are a couple of key indicators that tell me that not only are we in a recovery, but we are in the beginnings of what economists call a “V shaped” recovery, or as investopedia describes it “"a V-shaped recovery represents the shape of the chart of certain economic measures, such as employment, GDP and industrial output. A V-shaped recovery involves a sharp decline in these metrics followed by a sharp rise back to its previous peak.“. I talked about some of those indicators in this article, http://www.opednews.com/articles/Economy-Recovering--Repub-by-Steven-Leser-090724-283.html . Since that article we've seen even more signs. Here is what leads me to believe we are in for a robust recovery:

1. As I noted from Kudlow's articles including his July 23rd “Recovery Canaries in the Economic Coal Mine “, http://www.cnbc.com/id/32105734/ Corporate income is up across multiple sectors

2. The housing market is recovering briskly - Sale of homes is rising
.

The July report http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090821/bs_afp/useconomypropertysalesbank_20090821210529 that came out August 21st showed that existing home sales in July rose 7.2% to an adjusted rate of 5.24 million units. This indicates a stabilization of the housing industry is well underway and if this is what is happening, it would have an immense positive effect on the economy.

3. The equity markets are up significantly and appear to be continuing to rise

4. Already, we see that monthly unemployment figures are stabilizing and perhaps even starting a downward trend in marked contrast to predictions that the unemployment rate would shoot up to 10%. The July unemployment figures stunned most economists when they dropped from 9.5% in June to 9.4% in July. While this is not a precipitous drop, it is an indication that those who predicted a continuous and significant rise in the unemployment rate were not correct and in fact that unemployment may recover faster and sharper than most predicted.

Finally, the lions share of the effects of President Obama's economic stimulus package will be felt in 2010. One third of the President's $787 Billion stimulus is/was tax cuts. Of that, $75 Billion is aimed at middle and upper middle class families who, thanks to the cuts, do not have to pay the alternative minimum tax. These tax cuts are probably what we have to thank for the economic recovery we have seen so far in 2009. When the infrastructure construction aspects of the stimulus get into high gear, coupled with strong corporate earnings and a recovering housing market and you have the ingredients for serious downward pressure on the unemployment rate.

Getting back to my prediction on “Cashin' In”, one of the regulars on the show is Wayne Rogers, formerly of M*A*S*H. and House Calls fame. I'm a big fan of M*A*S*H, so I bet that the unemployment rate will be at or below 7.5% by August 22, 2010 or, in honor of Wayne and M*A*S*H, I would show up on the show dressed as Klinger.

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silverthread



Joined: 27 May 2009
Posts: 264
Location: USA

PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah duane....
The article makes some valid points ;
Yet , naysayers Won't : 'GET-IT'....
not Only because they want usa-to fail__:

but Because
they know if usa has Robust- recovery
It means THEIR Napoleonic-WATERLOO....

The 2nd link in the article U posted spells
this-Out clearly :
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Economy-Recovering--Repub-by-Steven-Leser-090724-283.html

Now here's
a part of that article worth noting :

"When someone
who dislikes Obama and his policies
as much as
CNBC's Larry Kudlow does__:

is forced to admit that it looks like__:
the economy is recovering,
you can bet that the recovery is going to be
a barn burner
.
That is exactly what we have here."


Remember this guy :

Sen. DeMint [S. Carolina]

the South Carolina Republican who said
health care could be President Obama's Waterloo ??

Well if usa economy recovers by August 2010 ;
as your article indicates....

Then
Sen. DeMint & fellow-Naysayers...

will lOOk like Napoleon_ on a donkey__:
tryin' to go backwards...



Because 2010
mid-term usa-elections
are in November 2010...

& Obama-Administration will lOOk
like Wellington @ WaterLoo...
[I.E. Wellington defeated Napoleon @ WaterLOO :

Laughing Wink Laughing

Yeah seems,
Karma
is gonna-bite
republicans in the Ass ;

OUCH!
Exclamation

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Fintan
Site Admin


Joined: 18 Jan 2006
Posts: 8121

PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CNBC and/or Stephen Lesser (a hardcore Obama-lovin' Dem)
aren't exactly reliable & independent sources.

And they are using vapor-ware unemployment stats.

Here's the real deal from http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

Blue Line = Reality
Grey Line = Fantasy
Red Line = 100% Delusional

Quote:
Last Updated: Aug 7, 2009



Basis of SGS BLue Line: http://www.shadowstats.com/article/employment

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bri



Joined: 16 Jun 2006
Posts: 3184
Location: Capacious Creek

PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 8:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm more inclined to believe the blue line from personal experience. Those of us who have a reliable source of income know they are lucky. At the moment it seems larger companies are dropping people like flies but those of us at small, family owned business with at least a shred of community heritage (and a "pub" in my case) feel somewhat stable at this point but it's still shaky.
That's why doing what you can is important. Freelance Freelance Freelance. Whether you have something stable on the side or not.
For anyone listening, if you have talent start using it for the good of the people, and hopefully a little cash for yourself if it is ethically sound.
If you have extra garden veggies, sell those fuckers at a can't-beat-it price and give deals to returning customers. Okay you aren't punching the NWO directly in the face but surface-level can still be a start.
Throw a concert directly for the poor in your community, not some organization for the poor. Sell your cds on a table nearby for 10 bucks a pop.
No this isn't some feel better about yourself Bono shite.
A person by person revolution.
Paying it forward is not a bad philosophy here, as long as the elite keeps their grubby hands out of it.

Or you can just have sex with someone uglier than you, feel better about yourself, do a benefit concert for G8, and take a nap.

In other financial news

A hip new article by Bill Bonner (unsure about this guy)
Seems to start with the right idea that the end of this system is nigh and then offers his solution .... "GOLD" in the final sentence....and then goes on to admit gold is also unstable...in the same sentence.

http://dailyreckoning.com/the-calm-before-the-financial-storm/

Stockpiling gold is not the solution here. This is going to take some serious reworking, starting on a personal, individual basis.


Last edited by bri on Mon Aug 24, 2009 10:17 pm; edited 1 time in total
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silverthread



Joined: 27 May 2009
Posts: 264
Location: USA

PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 9:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fintan wrote :

Quote :
"CNBC and/or Stephen Lesser
(a hardcore Obama-lovin' Dem)
aren't exactly reliable & independent sources."


So ,
Fintan....I ask :
what are ?
reliable & independent "Sources"...
of__: Obama-haters ???


Could it Be THIS ???__ :

N'all...

...think I'll stick with :
PROVEN..
L-O-N-G-Wave_ ForCasts Of
Konderteiff , Schumpeter & Frank Feather...

Those guys know-
what they're talkin' about
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duane



Joined: 07 Mar 2007
Posts: 554
Location: western pennsylvania

PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 9:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i posted the article on unemployment not because i agreed with it but to show what types of stuff are being out to the watchers of cable news.

as far as unemployment around here, some places are doing ok, for example my brother -in -law's business of fixing rail cars. but a lot of other
businesses that served the auto industry are history. people who are working are working extra hours to make up for those laid off, and are waiting for the next made-in-china shoe to fall

i'm retired and getting by by having everything paid off and living simply

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curious george



Joined: 19 Aug 2009
Posts: 363

PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 6:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great Audio Fintan!

might want to download latests CNBC interview with Robert Prector....just a week or so old interview with Maria B.

He is in allignment with your fall in the 09 fall time horizon yet he speaks of Dollar bottom and stock market top.

I tryed to copy the vid like but my browser kept crashing...strange since I have no other problems with vid till now...hehe

someone else may have better luck with vid post....?


Gc

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