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Audio - DANGER: New World Order Imploding!
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Fintan
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 8:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:

The Next Level Show - 9th October, 2008

Deja Vu:
Remember the Crash of 1873!


Could it be that a previous economic crash featured a
mortgage implosion; the US currency outside the Gold
Standard; and a collision of global trading?
Prof. of History, Scott Nelson details the astonishing parallels
between current events and the calamitous 1873 Global Crash.


LISTEN:
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Quote:
REFERENCES

Professor Reynolds Scott Nelson
Legum Professor of History
College of William and Mary

Webpage: http://srnels.people.wm.edu/
Curriculum Vitae: http://srnels.people.wm.edu/srn_vt.pdf

Background
Scott Nelson received his PhD in history from the University of North
Carolina in 1995. He focuses on nineteenth-century US History.

His first book, Iron Confederacies: Southern Railways, Klan Violence
and Reconstruction was published by UNC Press in April 1999. His second
book, Steel Drivin' Man (published 2006) explores the real life and
legend of railway hero John Henry. It was published by Oxford University
Press in Fall 2006, and has received rave reviews in Entertainment
Weekly, The Chicago Tribune, and The New York Times.

The research was featured on the cover of the Chronicle of Higher
Education and has aired on the History Channel. It has won the Merle
Curti Prize for best book in US social and cultural history, the Anisfield-
Wolf Prize for non-fiction, and the National Award for Fine Arts.

With Carol Sheriff, he has completed a social history of the American Civil
War called A People at War: Civilians and Soldiers in America's Civil War.
It was published by the trade division of Oxford University Press in March
of 2007.


http://srnels.people.wm.edu/steel.html


http://srnels.people.wm.edu/iron/index.html


Quote:
THE PANIC OF 1873

The economy is in fact over-expanded, particularly in railroad construction, and the weak link turns out to be the banking house of Jay Cooke and Company, which helped the U.S. Government finance the Civil War and also underwrote the construction of the Northern Pacific Railroad.

Jay Cooke and Company, a large and respected banking house declares itself bankrupt, and announces its failure on September 18, 1873.. (The bank's collapse precipitates the "Panic of 1873" and the ensuing three yea depression during which more than 10,000 businesses fail.

The basic economic problems are overproduction, a declining market and deflation. Investors in Europe, where a depression is already underway, begin to call in American loans. The New York Stock Exchange closes its doors for 10 days; other businesses fail; and railroad construction is curtailed, with some railroads defaulting on their bonds. The unemployed begin to move about the country seeking jobs, and bread lines appear in the cities. The hard times drove numbers of laboring people and those in humble circumstances to the West and other portions of the country, to seek the rewards which the stagnation of business in the great commercial centre denied them.

1 "It was a wild day in Wall street yesterday. The announcements of The Times in the morning prepared the public in a certain degree for the trouble which was to ensue, and many parties were enabled to go in the market early in the morning and protect themselves from loss. While many did this, and so saved themselves from ruin, there were others, and by far the majority, who thought that the trouble was solely brought about by machinations of the bears, and that there would only be a small sized panic, which would result in a sudden rebound in prices. Those who took this view of the situation held on to their investments as long as possible, and, so soon as their margins gave out, were compelled to go under. Of course, there were many who, by superior strength, were enabled to hold on to their purchases, and so escaped being sold out, at least for the time.

Parties who were frightened the night before by the marked decline in prices became sanguine and predicted an altogether better date of the market. This continued, however, but for a short time. The first intimation which came into the Stock Exchange of any change in the program was contained in a brief notice, which said authoritatively that Jay Cooke & Co. had suspended payment. To say that the street became excited would only give a feeble view of the expressions of feeling. The brokers stood perfectly thunderstruck for a moment, and then there was a general run to notify the different houses in Wall Street of the failure.

The brokers surged out of the Exchange, tumbling pell-mell over each other in the general confusion, and reached their respective offices in race-horse time. The members of firms who were surprised by this announcement had no time to deliberate. The bear clique was already selling the market down in the Exchange, and prices were declining frightfully.

The news of the panic spread in every direction down-town, and hundreds of people who had been carrying stocks in expectation of a rise, rushed into the offices of their brokers and left orders that their holdings should be immediately sold out. In this way prices fell off so the wall. Men went about the street with blanched faces, and requested piteously of their brokers that their stocks should not be sold out as more margin would be obtained in the morning; but self-preservation seemed to be the first law of nature with every one, so the accounts of the customers were closed out, and the losses became a fixed fact.

Some of the men who were ruined swore, some of them wept, some went out of the street without saying a word; others talked of the trouble in a jovial way, and went about trying to borrow money from friends to get on the short tack with."
http://www.thehistorybox.com/ny_city/panics/panics_article9a.htm


The Real Great Depression

The depression of 1929 is the wrong model for the current economic crisis

By PROF. SCOTT REYNOLDS NELSON

As a historian who works on the 19th century, I have been reading
my newspaper with a considerable sense of dread. While many
commentators on the recent mortgage and banking crisis have drawn
parallels to the Great Depression of 1929, that comparison is not
particularly apt.


Two years ago, I began research on the Panic of 1873, an event of some
interest to my colleagues in American business and labor history but
probably unknown to everyone else. But as I turn the crank on the
microfilm reader, I have been hearing weird echoes of recent events.

When commentators invoke 1929, I am dubious. According to most
historians and economists, that depression had more to do with overlarge
factory inventories, a stock-market crash, and Germany's inability to pay
back war debts, which then led to continuing strain on British gold
reserves. None of those factors is really an issue now. Contemporary
industries have very sensitive controls for trimming production as
consumption declines; our current stock-market dip followed bank
problems that emerged more than a year ago; and there are no serious
international problems with gold reserves, simply because banks no
longer peg their lending to them.

In fact, the current economic woes look a lot like what my 96-year-old
grandmother still calls "the real Great Depression." She pinched pennies
in the 1930s, but she says that times were not nearly so bad as the
depression her grandparents went through. That crash came in 1873 and
lasted more than four years. It looks much more like our current crisis.

The problems had emerged around 1870, starting in Europe. In the
Austro-Hungarian Empire, formed in 1867, in the states unified by Prussia
into the German empire, and in France, the emperors supported a
flowering of new lending institutions that issued mortgages for municipal
and residential construction, especially in the capitals of Vienna, Berlin,
and Paris. Mortgages were easier to obtain than before, and a building
boom commenced. Land values seemed to climb and climb; borrowers
ravenously assumed more and more credit, using unbuilt or half-built
houses as collateral. The most marvelous spots for sightseers in the three
cities today are the magisterial buildings erected in the so-called founder
period.

But the economic fundamentals were shaky. Wheat exporters from Russia
and Central Europe faced a new international competitor who drastically
undersold them. The 19th-century version of containers manufactured in
China and bound for Wal-Mart consisted of produce from farmers in the
American Midwest. They used grain elevators, conveyer belts, and
massive steam ships to export train loads of wheat to abroad. Britain,
the biggest importer of wheat, shifted to the cheap stuff quite suddenly
around 1871. By 1872 kerosene and manufactured food were rocketing
out of America's heartland, undermining rapeseed, flour, and beef prices.

The crash came in Central Europe in May 1873, as it became clear that
the region's assumptions about continual economic growth were too
optimistic. Europeans faced what they came to call the American
Commercial Invasion. A new industrial superpower had arrived, one
whose low costs threatened European trade and a European way of life.

As continental banks tumbled, British banks held back their capital,
unsure of which institutions were most involved in the mortgage crisis.
The cost to borrow money from another bank — the interbank lending
rate
— reached impossibly high rates. This banking crisis hit the
United States in the fall of 1873. Railroad companies tumbled first. They
had crafted complex financial instruments that promised a fixed return,
though few understood the underlying object that was guaranteed to
investors in case of default. (Answer: nothing). The bonds had sold well at
first, but they had tumbled after 1871 as investors began to doubt their
value, prices weakened, and many railroads took on short-term bank
loans to continue laying track. Then, as short-term lending rates
skyrocketed across the Atlantic in 1873, the railroads were in trouble.

When the railroad financier Jay Cooke proved unable to pay off his debts,
the stock market crashed in September, closing hundreds of banks over
the next three years. The panic continued for more than four years in the
United States and for nearly six years in Europe.

The long-term effects of the Panic of 1873 were perverse. For the largest
manufacturing companies in the United States — those with guaranteed
contracts and the ability to make rebate deals with the railroads — the
Panic years were golden. Andrew Carnegie, Cyrus McCormick, and John
D. Rockefeller had enough capital reserves to finance their own
continuing growth. For smaller industrial firms that relied on seasonal
demand and outside capital, the situation was dire. As capital reserves
dried up, so did their industries. Carnegie and Rockefeller bought out
their competitors at fire-sale prices.
The Gilded Age in the United States,
as far as industrial concentration was concerned, had begun.

As the panic deepened, ordinary Americans suffered terribly. A cigar
maker named Samuel Gompers who was young in 1873 later recalled
that with the panic, "economic organization crumbled with some primeval
upheaval." Between 1873 and 1877, as many smaller factories and
workshops shuttered their doors, tens of thousands of workers — many
former Civil War soldiers — became transients. The terms "tramp" and
"bum," both indirect references to former soldiers, became commonplace
American terms. Relief rolls exploded in major cities, with 25-percent
unemployment (100,000 workers) in New York City alone.

Unemployed workers demonstrated in Boston, Chicago, and New York in
the winter of 1873-74 demanding public work. In New York's Tompkins
Square in 1874, police entered the crowd with clubs and beat up
thousands of men and women. The most violent strikes in American
history followed the panic, including by the secret labor group known as
the Molly Maguires in Pennsylvania's coal fields in 1875, when masked
workmen exchanged gunfire with the "Coal and Iron Police," a private
force commissioned by the state. A nationwide railroad strike followed in
1877, in which mobs destroyed railway hubs in Pittsburgh, Chicago, and
Cumberland, Md.

In Central and Eastern Europe, times were even harder. Many political
analysts blamed the crisis on a combination of foreign banks and Jews.
Nationalistic political leaders (or agents of the Russian czar) embraced a
new, sophisticated brand of anti-Semitism that proved appealing to
thousands who had lost their livelihoods in the panic. Anti-Jewish pogroms
followed in the 1880s, particularly in Russia and Ukraine. Heartland
communities large and small had found a scapegoat: aliens in their own
midst.

The echoes of the past in the current problems with residential mortgages
trouble me. Loans after about 2001 were issued to first-time home buyers
who signed up for adjustable rate mortgages they could likely never pay
off, even in the best of times. Real-estate speculators, hoping to flip
properties, overextended themselves, assuming that home prices would
keep climbing. Those debts were wrapped in complex securities that
mortgage companies and other entrepreneurial banks then sold to other
banks; concerned about the stability of those securities, banks then
bought a kind of insurance policy called a credit-derivative swap, which
risk managers imagined would protect their investments. More than two
million foreclosure filings — default notices, auction-sale notices, and
bank repossessions — were reported in 2007. By then trillions of dollars
were already invested in this credit-derivative market. Were those new
financial instruments resilient enough to cover all the risk? (Answer: no.)

As in 1873, a complex financial pyramid rested on a pinhead. Banks are
hoarding cash. Banks that hoard cash do not make short-term loans.
Businesses large and small now face a potential dearth of short-term
credit to buy raw materials, ship their products, and keep goods on
shelves.

If there are lessons from 1873, they are different from those of 1929.
Most important, when banks fall on Wall Street, they stop all the traffic on
Main Street — for a very long time. The protracted reconstruction of
banks in the United States and Europe created widespread
unemployment. Unions (previously illegal in much of the world) flourished
but were then destroyed by corporate institutions that learned to operate
on the edge of the law. In Europe, politicians found their scapegoats in
Jews, on the fringes of the economy. (Americans, on the other hand,
mostly blamed themselves; many began to embrace what would later be
called fundamentalist religion.)

The post-panic winners, even after the bailout, might be those firms —
financial and otherwise — that have substantial cash reserves. A
widespread consolidation of industries may be on the horizon, along with
a nationalistic response of high tariff barriers, a decline in international
trade, and scapegoating of immigrant competitors for scarce jobs. The
failure in July of the World Trade Organization talks begun in Doha seven
years ago suggests a new wave of protectionism may be on the way.

In the end, the Panic of 1873 demonstrated that the center of gravity for
the world's credit had shifted west — from Central Europe toward the
United States. The current panic suggests a further shift — from the
United States to China and India. Beyond that I would not hazard a
guess. I still have microfilm to read.

Originally published in The Chronicle Review

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atm



Joined: 16 Apr 2006
Posts: 3862

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 10:54 am    Post subject: The Creature from Jekyll Island Reply with quote

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8484911570371055528

atm Wink
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PatrickSMcNally



Joined: 05 Mar 2007
Posts: 846

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 1:09 pm    Post subject: Re: The Creature from Jekyll Island Reply with quote

atm wrote:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8484911570371055528

Griffin is way offbase. The creation of the Federal Reserve was not (repeat NOT) the result of the Jekyll Island meeting. Ever since the bank run of 1907 it had been a topic of open public debate that the banking system needed to be reformed.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/047015263X/ref=cm_cr_pr_product_top

In 1910 a meeting was held on Jekyll Island by bankers in response to the public pressure. They realized that the demands for some kind of banking reform were growing and could not be ignored, so they tried to create their own plan (the Aldrich Plan) and put it forward in advance. The Aldrich Plan was rejected by Congress and did not form the basis of the Federal Reserve System. If you like, you can regard the meeting at Jekyll Island as a failed conspiracy. The later creation of the Federal Reserve System in 1913 was not an enactment of the Aldrich Plan and it implemented ideas which had been publicly talked about since 1907.

Edward Flaherty gives a useful short rundown on the basic facts:

http://www.publiceye.org/conspire/flaherty/Federal_Reserve.html

Our financial crisis today has really nothing to do with the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, except insofar as the latter is part of the general history of capitalism. The crisis today has occurred simply because of what Karl Marx used to call "overproduction." We produce so many goods and services that it's hard for anyone to find room for a profitable new investment in the classical sense. Hence a surplus of phony investment schemes begins to grow in its place, and now we bear the burden of all of those scam investments. But that is not controlled by the Federal Reserve, and it isn't something which can be said to have come about because of the latter's creation. Actually, the greatest period of productive growth in US capitalism happened in the 20th century after the Federal Reserve was created. That period of upward growth that began after WWII ended not because of anyone's conspiracy but because the economic room for growth exhausted itself.

It's interesting that Fintan chose to do an interview with someone comparing things to the crisis of the 1870s, which was long before the Fed was created. Bank runs used to be a very normal thing a century or so ago. Most banks in the 19th century back then had an expected lifetime of about 5 years before crashing. The Fed was created in an effort to stabilize this, and on a relative scale it did manage to succeed for awhile. But an outdated system can't be sustained.

As for the currect crisis, Nick Beams gives a useful overview of the situation:

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/oct2008/nbe1-o04.shtml

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/oct2008/nbe2-o06.shtml

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/oct2008/nbe3-o07.shtml

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/oct2008/nbe4-o08.shtml
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SuperstarNeilC



Joined: 10 Apr 2007
Posts: 342
Location: Manchester, England

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 2:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$700 billion is nothing

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atm



Joined: 16 Apr 2006
Posts: 3862

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 3:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:


Griffin is way offbase. The creation of the Federal Reserve was not (repeat NOT) the result of the Jekyll Island meeting. Ever since the bank run of 1907 it had been a topic of open public debate that the banking system needed to be reformed.


That is open to rebate, mate.

atm Laughing
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Robert



Joined: 07 Feb 2006
Posts: 398

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 3:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wow................

GOLD breaks out against the



New alltime highs.
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Fintan
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Joined: 18 Jan 2006
Posts: 8101

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 5:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah Gold is breaking out, but beware of paper gold instruments.
Below is Jurg Kiener the CEO of Swiss Asia Capital warning of a
DEFAULT in the gold paper exchanges. Physical gold is way over
the paper price - if you can get it.


http://breakfornews.com/audio/JurgKiener-SwissAsiaCapital081007.mp3

Meanwhile, another bloodbath today:

Quote:


No doubt in part caused by investors getting this in the mail:

Quote:


However, some of the selling may be
due to much bigger fish cashing out:

Quote:
Indonesia market shut down,
may stay closed through Friday


By Zakki Hakim, Associated Press Writer

JAKARTA, Indonesia — Trading on the Jakarta Stock Exchange was
canceled Thursday and may remain suspended through the week as
officials try to quell a stampede of selling that has sent the country's
main stock index skidding more than 20% this week.


Fears about the global financial crisis sent the benchmark JSX index
tumbling more than 10% Wednesday before authorities ordered a halt
in trade in the late morning.

Thursday's session was canceled before trading opened and the
suspension could be extended through Friday, Minister of State
Enterprises Sofyan Jalil said after a late night Cabinet meeting.....

"What is happening is panic selling to an extent that it is irrational," said
Irvin Patmadiwiria, the head of investments at PT Lautan Dana
Investment Management.

He said roughly 70% of stocks traded in Jakarta are owned by foreign
investors, who are cashing out holdings to create liquidity
.

Among the most active sellers were Merrill Lynch, United Overseas Bank,
McGuire and JP Morgan
, he said. They were dumping blue chip
telecommunication, banking, and manufacturing shares.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/world/2008-10-09-indonesia-market-shut-down_N.htm?csp=34


Undoubtedly, a huge factor is the unwinding of the yen carry trade
as the yen appreciates against the dollar while yen-based speculators
cash out their US investments. The tracking is perfect:

Quote:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/dorsch100808.html


But this sell off is a perfect mood-setting preface to an
unprecedented multi-level series of international financial elite
meetings over the next few days:

Quote:
The Group of 20 (G20) that brings together emerging economies and
industrial nations
will hold an emergency meeting Saturday to consider
joint efforts to tackle a debilitating financial crisis.

US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will host the gathering in
Washington on the sidelines of the annual meetings of the International
Monetary Fund and World Bank
, and will include finance ministers and
central bank heads from the world's largest economies.

"We see evidence every day that world economies and financial markets
are more connected and interdependent than at any time in history,"
Paulson told reporters.

Members of the Group of Seven industrial nations plan to meet on Friday.
Paulson said the wider gathering on Saturday would give ministers the
chance to "discuss how we might coordinate to lessen the effects of global
market turmoil and the economic slowdown on all of our countries."

http://profit.ndtv.com/2008/10/09121328/G20-nations-to-meet-on-Saturda.html

I was thinking that a good name for the new
world currency unit would be the Globo!

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RedMahna



Joined: 07 Sep 2006
Posts: 1512
Location: USA

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 10:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You know, the fuckers shoulda took the 700B and bought MER Jan 09 $10 Puts a week ago. Or any other financial company puts, or even Mastercard or Visa puts, or PBR and PTR puts... shit, just about any fucking put.
Who the hell gave them financial advice, anyway? Dumbshits.

Quote:
"We see evidence every day that world economies and financial markets
are more connected and interdependent than at any time in history,"
Paulson told reporters.
WHERE THE F HAS HE BEEN??? "We see... markets are more connected...?" Was that a joke?

Quote:
I was thinking that a good name for the new
world currency unit would be the Globo!

I was thinking if they are reading this post, they just might do it to blow our minds, whaddya think?

red

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James D



Joined: 16 Dec 2006
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 7:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fintan said:
Quote:

I was thinking that a good name for the new
world currency unit would be the Globo!


I don't know Dude, "globo" in Spanish means Balloon!!
It could get it off to a dubious start with doom impending conotations!! Laughing
On the other hand, it might give it the kind of realism that a global currency needs!
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evelyn



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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 10:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I thought implosion was the goal.

And when the dust settles and the "leaders" (royalty and their wealthy exspurts & henchpins) sashay forth - we little pissants will all live more or less at one level (poverty).

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PatrickSMcNally



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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 1:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

atm wrote:
That is open to rebate, mate.

No, it's a historical fact that the issue of reforming the banking system to try to counter what had been a long-time trend on bankruns was publicly discussed for several years. The trip to Jekyll Island was an attempt by banking leaders to respond by presenting their proposition before anyone else came up something. Their proposition was rejected however.
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RedMahna



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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 8:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PatrickMcN wrote:
Quote:
Our financial crisis today has really nothing to do with the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, except insofar as the latter is part of the general history of capitalism. The crisis today has occurred simply because of what Karl Marx used to call "overproduction." We produce so many goods and services that it's hard for anyone to find room for a profitable new investment in the classical sense. Hence a surplus of phony investment schemes begins to grow in its place, and now we bear the burden of all of those scam investments. But that is not controlled by the Federal Reserve, and it isn't something which can be said to have come about because of the latter's creation. Actually, the greatest period of productive growth in US capitalism happened in the 20th century after the Federal Reserve was created. That period of upward growth that began after WWII ended not because of anyone's conspiracy but because the economic room for growth exhausted itself.


Hey PMcN, good to see you 'round... and glad you make that point. I think in all of our trouble to pin the tail on the most blame-worthy donkey in such a complicated mess, we see the mechanics of the system as an evil micro-managed plan that has spot-on timing which results to their favor. I don't doubt there's a lot of dot-connecting, but what I always have a problem with is our amount of consumerism. It's grotesque in comparison to practical use. So undoubtedly, we need out-the-ass marketing and an administration (or several) that pushes - like dope - spending.

I liked watching Zeitgeist, but it's too simplistic in blame. It doesn't account for the public's equally greedy ambitions. I am to blame as is the next guy. If the lady down the street kept her money between her mattress and paid cash for rent, utilities, her car, clothes and food, I can maybe excuse her. But the fact is, even those of us who voted for politicians that were pro-deregulation, pro-privatization, and anti-union, were reckless for the mere reality that while they felt capable of controlling their spending, they ought to have known their next-door neighbors would not be quite so conservative.

In other words, if I can see a corruption factor in a piece of legislation, I don't think it's a good thing for all of us to have for the mere perception of freedom... like as in free market.

There's no real industry so consumerism is the Gross National Product to abuse anymore in the United States, meaning cheap goods & services, and sheep-leading bubbles on which the cunning can step on multiple times like a bad spoon of street cocaine. Hail Madison Avenue and Wall Street.

Now that we sheep are all cacpable of owning a copy of Michael Jackson's Thriller, they knew we'd buy new cars every year, one for each new licensee, and a TV for each room, a computer for each member including the kiddies, a few XBoxes, a few iPods, cellphones every time a new one comes along... well, we have so much stuff, a house is just what we need to store all that shit.

Even elections are nothing but another sales vehicle. If they keep it entertaining enough...

red

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