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Audio: 9/11 & Globalist Crash-Con-omics
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Hombre



Joined: 07 Jan 2008
Posts: 967

PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 7:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

My last post on this thread will hopefully help a few grasp what is REALLY GOING ON. Fintan's thoughts are spot on and most of which I agree 100% but a few other post's in this thread are total bull and full of scare tactic 101.

Quote:
You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to recognize that a series of decisions and events have transpired to put Goldman at the top of the heap. Well before the credit crisis, people worried about Goldman's influence in the markets. Several former executives of the investment bank have senior roles in government and at the New York Stock Exchange, and its analysts are among the most powerful in the space.
Let's limit the discussion to the start of the credit crisis in the summer of 2007. Just before the market turned, Goldman traders got a hunch and began shorting and hedging the mortgage securities that were eating away at rivals' revenue. Trading revenue soared 70% that quarter to $8.23 billion.
It was Goldman's last quarter in a series in which each new profit report exceeded expectations and prior results. Goldman's share price was in shouting distance of $300. It was also when grumblings about the investment bank's transparency became louder. That's important because Goldman continues to give few details about its "proprietary trading" business. What is it exactly? No one knows for sure


Make any sense? How about this?

Quote:
Industry collapse
What followed was notable for what didn't happen: write-downs. Goldman has admitted to less than $5 billion in write-downs, including the $1.1 billion when it reported earnings Sept. 16. That's on a balance sheet of $1 trillion.
Chart of GS
In between those earnings announcements, Goldman lost its biggest competitor in prime brokerage, Bear Stearns Cos., on March 17. In September, it also lost the biggest competitor in debt underwriting, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEHMQ:

LEHMQ 0.21, 0.00, -2.3%) , and a big rival in investment banking, Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER:

MER 26.70, +1.40, +5.5%) , in an emergency sale to a commercial bank.
Judging by the government's reaction, Morgan Stanley and Goldman should have been next -- either through a crisis sale like Merrill or a liquidation like Lehman. Investors sent their stocks reeling. Morgan Stanley quickly began talks with Wachovia Corp., while Goldman kept quiet.
During all of this, Goldman Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein was in the middle of talks about the future of another crippled company, American International Group Inc. (AIG:
American International Group, Inc

AIG 3.95, +0.62, +18.6%) , at the New York Federal Reserve. As Gretchen Morgenson reported in the New York Times last week, those talks resulted in an $85 billion bailout of AIG via a government loan, and, oh yeah, the deal may have saved Goldman $20 billion in losses due to its trading position with the insurer."
Goldman poured cold water on that claim saying in a statement it "had no material exposure to AIG


As for China and how they fit into all of the conspiracy about an imminent collapse/WORLD MONETARY/ECONOMIC COLLAPSE. Laughing Do you really think they want to piss all over their " EXPORT BUSINESS "

Toxic debt: in terms of WHAT? Fully 70-75% of all sub-primes are CURRENT. Yes this means peoples is payin da notes. This means there's no freaking way in hell that ALL OF THESE ASSETS ARE TOXIC AND ANYTHING BACKING THEM SHOULD BE sold for 20 cents on the dollar. It's an outright scam and that's the bottom line nothing more to it. NOT TO MENTION THAT a small overlooked problem( AKIN TO THE AUTO INDUSTRY ) is inventory HELLO. They built way way too many houses and that's a major aspect of the BUBBLE.

Auto Dealerships are going under YEAH YEAH YEAH it's not because banks won't loan them MONEY, it's because these dealers can't pay the interest on their FLOOR PLANS because OIL and Gas prices have queered their stock mix IE. INVENTORY. I wouldn't loan money to anyone who can't repay it and neither will MOST BANKS or CREDIT FACILITIES. So when Harry Reid told the story about his good buddy, with Dealerships in Nevada and other states not being able to borrow he was using a SCARE TACTIC. He should have told you WHY the guy can't borrow yet he left that little FACT OUT.

Just look for the same old people spewing their scare tactics and this picture will become a little easier for you to see. Clinton saying commerce
could stop all together. Shocked Come on bag it son. I know what they are really after and must agree with Fintan on this one. It's a shift in banking power to a more " GLOBALLY CONTROLLED/ORIENTED SELECT FEW "

If you haven't listed to Fintan's audio I would highly recommend it. Something he mentioned about who controls most of the worlds actions came to pass yesterday when it was mentioned that France had thrown their hat into the ring. Wink Impressive work is all I can say. Well done!

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/whos-profiting-crisis-goldman-sachs/story.aspx?guid={C177EA75-

Hombre

PS. Paulson is hiding something and protecting someone or something he isn't comfortable with the common man knowing about Wink JMHO.
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atm



Joined: 16 Apr 2006
Posts: 3861

PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 8:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:





America’s chance to kick its Asian addiction


By David Pilling

Published: October 1 2008 18:43 | Last updated: October 1 2008 18:43

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d62b395c-8fcc-11dd-9890-0000779fd18c.html

Did America hang itself with Asian rope? I put this to a Chinese official last week and, quick as a flash, he responded: “No. It drowned itself in Asian liquidity.”


Asia’s part in America’s financial downfall has been two-fold.

First, shiploads of cheap goods from China and other low-cost producers helped keep a lid on US prices. That lulled the Fed, with its tight focus on the consumer price index, into thinking it could have it both ways: high growth with low inflation.

Second, Asian bank reserves of $4,300bn (£2,400bn, €3,000bn) – enough to fund Treasury secretary Hank Paulson’s bail-out six times over – combined with petrodollars to provide the US with almost endless liquidity. This poured into US Treasuries and Fannie and Freddie bonds, suppressing US interest rates, inflating the housing bubble and funding buy-now pay-later consumption.

Western banks and hedge funds used Asia, particularly Japan, as an enchanted pool of money. Through the so-called carry trade, they dipped their ladles into its ultra-low interest rate waters and splashed the proceeds around on exotic, high-yield instruments. For a while it all worked beautifully. You know the rest.

In one sense, this is a story of Asian prudence versus US recklessness.

By accumulating vast savings – China and Japan alone boast 40 per cent of global central bank reserves – Asians have lived below their means so that Americans could live beyond theirs. Asia bankrolled US budget and trade deficits and provided the cash for banks and individuals to go on a spending spree and for Washington to fight wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

“Arguably, the US overextended itself in international relations and in the management of its domestic situation. It spent way beyond its means,” says Fang Xinghai, director general of Shanghai’s Financial Services Office. “For a while, the US thought this was great and that this trade could go on forever.”

While it lasted, China and others were able to grow at supercharged rates by lending to Americans so that they could import its products. Now that wheeze is over, Asia will suffer too. But even if China, which grew at 12 per cent last year, loses 4 percentage points of growth, it will still be clipping along at 8 per cent. If the US or Europe loses the same amount, it will be deep in recession.

Wall Street’s 9/11 could thus turn out to be an important milestone on the road to Asia’s century. US presidential candidates invoked that possibility last week in their debate. Barack Obama referred to China’s recent space walk as a sign that it was catching up while America floundered. John McCain, attacking waste in Washington, said: “We owe China $500bn.” Mr Obama went one better, saying (more accurately) China “now holds $1,000bn of our national debt”. Linking finance with power, he added: “There has never been a country on earth that saw its economy decline and yet maintained its military superiority.”

There has been a cautious reappraisal in parts of Asia too. “More people understand that America is not as great as it was 10 years ago,” says Shen Dingli of Fudan university in Shanghai. “This is not a time for China to be on a par with America. But the relative shift of the centre of gravity does bring China more confidence.”

For the moment, though, the fates of Asia and the US remain more aligned than opposed. Chinese, Singaporean and other Asian investors have lost billions on their stakes in failing western institutions. Asian governments have insisted on the need for a US bail-out to protect their sovereign investments.

US woes bounce back in other ways, too. In August, Japan recorded its first seasonally adjusted monthly trade deficit in a quarter of a century after shipments to the US slid 22 per cent. Net exports are not expected to contribute anything at all to Chinese growth this year. “China feels the same pain as America,” says Prof Shen. “It is not a case of: ‘Your loss is my win,’ but rather: ‘You lose, I lose.’ ”

More fundamentally, the pattern of flows from Asia to the US and other deficit countries could change. If the US can wean itself off what has been an unhealthy addiction, the shock could yet turn out to be to its long-term advantage. It has already started increasing exports and importing less.

In another sign of change, the big gap between returns that drove Japanese capital to the US has narrowed sharply for bonds and disappeared altogether for equity, says Peter Tasker of Kleinwort Dresdner. “This could be the crumbling of the configuration that has seen capital surplus countries funding US consumption,” he says.

For that to happen Asians would have to start spending more at home. That could be brought about by a deep recession, which would oblige them to run down savings. Alternatively, Asian governments could encourage their citizens to break savings habits and go on a US-style binge.

Chinese citizens, whose consumption accounts for a measly third of national output – against 70 per cent in the US – could certainly spend more. But Beijing, which has already taken steps to prick the housing bubble, appears in no hurry to encourage reckless spending.

Says Mr Fang: “I’m not sure you should encourage people to borrow in order to spend. That is what bankrupted the US.”


Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
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atm



Joined: 16 Apr 2006
Posts: 3861

PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 8:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:


Protests on Wall Street - what the news media isn't showing you


By AZGuy

http://hubpages.com/hub/Protests-on-Wall-Street---what-the-news-media-isnt-showing-you

Protests took place on Wall St. to protest the bail out plan - and the mainstream news media didn't even mention it

Hundreds of protestors demonstrated agains the proposed $700 Billion bail out plan for the finance and banking industry, yet the national news media in America didn't even report it! Why not? It seems strange that this barely generated a gander from the big news outlets like ABC, CNN, CBS, NBC etc. all of whom have a presence in New York City. Despite having such a large protest event occurring in their backyard, the major news media chose not to tell the American people about it. I had to stumble upon this on the internet to find out about it. That's really indicative of the pathetic state of affairs in the U.S. media today.

Anyway, in case you haven't seen it, I have collected a bunch of video from the protests on Wall Street (Sept. 25) and posted them below. Have a look at what the news media DIDN'T show you! Warning: some of the protest videos contain profanity.

http://hubpages.com/hub/Protests-on-Wall-Street---what-the-news-media-isnt-showing-you





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Fintan
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Joined: 18 Jan 2006
Posts: 8605

PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 8:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, Market Ticker and Sherman
are right on the money......

Quote:
WASHINGTON — Last week, Rep. Brad Sherman of California circulated
an invitation to his fellow House Democrats: "Come to the first and
perhaps only meeting of the Skeptics Caucus to discuss President
Bush's $700 billion bailout bill."


Nine lawmakers showed up. By a fourth meeting Sunday, the number had
grown to more than 20, an eclectic group from across the party's
political spectrum. In the meantime, Sherman was pumping out papers
excoriating the plan, which he likened to a ransom note.

"If you want to see your 401(k) alive again, give us $700 billion
in unmarked bills
," he said, facetiously quoting Treasury Secretary
Henry Paulson.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2008-10-01-sherman_N.htm


Quote:
Rep. Brad Sherman, D California:

Larry I am glad you have a few seconds to talk to someone who
voted against this bill.
I am not changing my mind. I want to thank my
colleagues who stood up to the purveyors of panic and voted against a
very bad bill and voted with 400 eminent economists including three
Nobel laureates who wrote to us and said don't panic, don't act hastily,
hold hearings, work carefully. The fact is Larry if you read this bill, even
you would have voted against it.

It provides hundreds of billions of dollars of bailouts to foreign
investors.
It provides no real control of Paulson's power. There is a
critique board but not really a board that can step in and change what he
does. It's a $700 billion program run by a part-time temporary employee
and there is no limit on million dollar a month salaries.

Larry Kudlow:

Let me just ask you one question. I think you are referring to foreign
banks headquartered in the United States. I do not see how foreign
investors get bailed out.

Rep. Brad Sherman:

Larry you have to read the bill. It's very clear. The Bank of Shanghai
can transfer all of its toxic assets to the Bank of Shanghai of Los Angeles
which can then sell them the next day to the Treasury. I had a provision
to say if it wasn't owned by an American entity even a subsidiary, but at
least an entity in the US, the Treasury can't buy it. It was rejected.


The bill is very clear. Assets now held in China and London can be sold
to US entities on Monday and then sold to the Treasury on Tuesday.

Paulson has made it clear he will recommend a veto of any bill that
contained a clear provision that said if Americans did not own the asset
on September 20th that it can't be sold to the Treasury.

Hundreds of billions of dollars are going to bail out foreign investors.
They know it, they demanded it and the bill has been carefully written to
make sure that can happen.

http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=7619

_________________
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They only function when open.


Last edited by Fintan on Thu Oct 02, 2008 4:19 pm; edited 3 times in total
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rustyh



Joined: 17 Sep 2006
Posts: 489
Location: A Wonderful World

PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 10:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Era of US economic dominance over: Medvedev
October 2, 2008 - 7:14PM

The era of US global economic dominance is over and the world now needs a new and "more just" financial system, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said here today.

"The time of domination by one economy and one currency has been consigned to the past once and for all," Medvedev said in an address to a Russian-German development forum, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel at his side.

"We must work together towards building a new and more just financial-economic system in the world based on the principles of multipolarity, supremacy of the law and taking account of mutual interests."

The current crisis proved that even with its vast economic resources the United States was not in a position to play the role of "mega-regulator" and that a new system based on collective management was needed, he said.

"We simply need new mechanisms of collective decision-making and collective responsibility," Medvedev said.

His comments came a day after Russia's powerful prime minister Vladimir Putin lashed out at US economic "irresponsibility" for the global financial crisis.

"Everything happening now in the economic and financial sphere began in the United States," Putin told a televised government meeting.

"This is not the irresponsibility of specific individuals but the irresponsibility of the system which claims leadership," he said.

Putin's remarks, made hours before the US Senate approved a $US700 billion ($A888 billion) government bailout plan for the country's financial sector, were rebuffed by the White House, which called them "unfair" finger-pointing.

Russia's young stock markets, rarely predictable in normal times, have swung wildly in recent weeks as the scope of the US-rooted crisis has become clear, with regulators repeatedly suspending trading after sharp drops.

Although Russia's Central Bank still holds massive US dollar reserves, the Kremlin has in the past two years sought to diversify the country's holdings, notably by boosting holdings in euros.

New housing and automobile purchases in Russia, two closely watched indicators of Russia's economic health, are heavily dependent on bank financing and the crisis has reportedly taken a toll in those two sectors.
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maverick



Joined: 09 Aug 2006
Posts: 271

PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 12:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hombre wrote:
My last post on this thread will hopefully help a few grasp what is REALLY GOING ON. Fintan's thoughts are spot on and most of which I agree 100% but a few other post's in this thread are total bull and full of scare tactic 101.

Quote:
You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to recognize that a series of decisions and events have transpired to put Goldman at the top of the heap. Well before the credit crisis, people worried about Goldman's influence in the markets. Several former executives of the investment bank have senior roles in government and at the New York Stock Exchange, and its analysts are among the most powerful in the space.
Let's limit the discussion to the start of the credit crisis in the summer of 2007. Just before the market turned, Goldman traders got a hunch and began shorting and hedging the mortgage securities that were eating away at rivals' revenue. Trading revenue soared 70% that quarter to $8.23 billion.
It was Goldman's last quarter in a series in which each new profit report exceeded expectations and prior results. Goldman's share price was in shouting distance of $300. It was also when grumblings about the investment bank's transparency became louder. That's important because Goldman continues to give few details about its "proprietary trading" business. What is it exactly? No one knows for sure


Make any sense? How about this?

Quote:
Industry collapse
What followed was notable for what didn't happen: write-downs. Goldman has admitted to less than $5 billion in write-downs, including the $1.1 billion when it reported earnings Sept. 16. That's on a balance sheet of $1 trillion.
Chart of GS
In between those earnings announcements, Goldman lost its biggest competitor in prime brokerage, Bear Stearns Cos., on March 17. In September, it also lost the biggest competitor in debt underwriting, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEHMQ:

LEHMQ 0.21, 0.00, -2.3%) , and a big rival in investment banking, Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER:

MER 26.70, +1.40, +5.5%) , in an emergency sale to a commercial bank.
Judging by the government's reaction, Morgan Stanley and Goldman should have been next -- either through a crisis sale like Merrill or a liquidation like Lehman. Investors sent their stocks reeling. Morgan Stanley quickly began talks with Wachovia Corp., while Goldman kept quiet.
During all of this, Goldman Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein was in the middle of talks about the future of another crippled company, American International Group Inc. (AIG:
American International Group, Inc

AIG 3.95, +0.62, +18.6%) , at the New York Federal Reserve. As Gretchen Morgenson reported in the New York Times last week, those talks resulted in an $85 billion bailout of AIG via a government loan, and, oh yeah, the deal may have saved Goldman $20 billion in losses due to its trading position with the insurer."
Goldman poured cold water on that claim saying in a statement it "had no material exposure to AIG


As for China and how they fit into all of the conspiracy about an imminent collapse/WORLD MONETARY/ECONOMIC COLLAPSE. Laughing Do you really think they want to piss all over their " EXPORT BUSINESS "

Toxic debt: in terms of WHAT? Fully 70-75% of all sub-primes are CURRENT. Yes this means peoples is payin da notes. This means there's no freaking way in hell that ALL OF THESE ASSETS ARE TOXIC AND ANYTHING BACKING THEM SHOULD BE sold for 20 cents on the dollar. It's an outright scam and that's the bottom line nothing more to it. NOT TO MENTION THAT a small overlooked problem( AKIN TO THE AUTO INDUSTRY ) is inventory HELLO. They built way way too many houses and that's a major aspect of the BUBBLE.

Auto Dealerships are going under YEAH YEAH YEAH it's not because banks won't loan them MONEY, it's because these dealers can't pay the interest on their FLOOR PLANS because OIL and Gas prices have queered their stock mix IE. INVENTORY. I wouldn't loan money to anyone who can't repay it and neither will MOST BANKS or CREDIT FACILITIES. So when Harry Reid told the story about his good buddy, with Dealerships in Nevada and other states not being able to borrow he was using a SCARE TACTIC. He should have told you WHY the guy can't borrow yet he left that little FACT OUT.

Just look for the same old people spewing their scare tactics and this picture will become a little easier for you to see. Clinton saying commerce
could stop all together. Shocked Come on bag it son. I know what they are really after and must agree with Fintan on this one. It's a shift in banking power to a more " GLOBALLY CONTROLLED/ORIENTED SELECT FEW "

If you haven't listed to Fintan's audio I would highly recommend it. Something he mentioned about who controls most of the worlds actions came to pass yesterday when it was mentioned that France had thrown their hat into the ring. Wink Impressive work is all I can say. Well done!

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/whos-profiting-crisis-goldman-sachs/story.aspx?guid={C177EA75-

Hombre

PS. Paulson is hiding something and protecting someone or something he isn't comfortable with the common man knowing about Wink JMHO.


I agree ...........I think this is all a scam.......

"Companys are having a hard time making payroll"..........I have not heard anyone where I live having a hard time cashing paychecks, companys making payroll and all the banks and credit unions are begging for people to come in and take out a loan...........

To get all the votes for this they had to tell all these guys of some other circimstances (ie scare tactics) to get them to vote for this bs.......

Funny you never hear shit about Paulsons ties to China........you would think that would have been reported on the news by now........
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Fintan
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Joined: 18 Jan 2006
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 2:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Treasury secretary banks on his long relationship with China

9/22/2006 - By David J. Lynch, USA TODAY

BEIJING — As an investment banker, Henry Paulson has been coming
here for more than 15 years to make deals with the Chinese.
This week,
in his first visit as Treasury secretary, he made another one.

But unlike the lucrative commercial agreements Paulson negotiated as
chief executive of Goldman Sachs, the value of his latest deal is uncertain.

Paulson says China's agreement to participate in a new "Strategic
Economic Dialogue
" will place the "most important economic relationship
in the world" on a solid long-term footing. Critics on Capitol Hill and
among manufacturers say it's only the most recent in a long line of
fruitless talks. They want a crackdown on what they say are Beijing's
unfair trade practices, including a currency policy that effectively
subsidizes Chinese exports, and widespread piracy of American software
and movies.

"I'm not discounting the challenge, not discounting it at all. ... China is still
in transition to a market-driven economy, but they're so big and powerful
economically, they are a global economic leader, and I think they gotta
move faster
," Paulson told USA TODAY in an interview Thursday.
"They've got things they need to do. I'm going to need to persuade them
to move faster.
"

Paulson lined up backing from top White House aides and Cabinet
colleagues before approaching the president this summer, says White
House Chief of Staff Josh Bolten, another former Goldman Sachs executive.

"This was his brainchild," says Bolten. "He has the full confidence of the
president, and other Cabinet members know that.

The 60-year-old Treasury secretary brings an impressive track record to
the task of reorienting U.S.-China economic ties. On his watch, Goldman
Sachs led several major initial public offerings of state-owned Chinese
companies. In 2000, it helped underwrite the IPO of PetroChina, then the
largest Chinese share offering. Two years ago, it became the first foreign
firm to win approval to establish a joint venture investment bank.

Building relationships in China

Paulson says he succeeded in China by cultivating relationships with
Chinese decision-makers and by making roughly 70 visits since 1990.
Providing advice for a Tsinghua University business school and
performing conservation work in Yunnan province helped convinced the
Chinese that he was interested in more than just their money.

"The new secretary of the Treasury has quite a good reputation in
China. ... His statements about China are quite positive," said Shi
Yinhong, a professor of international relations at People's University in
Beijing.

Today, Paulson is scheduled to see both Chinese President Hu Jintao and
Premier Wen Jiabao. Beijing Mayor Wang Qishan and central bank chief
Zhou Xiaochuan are among his closer contacts.


The Treasury chief's plain-spoken conversations with Chinese officials are
littered with football references befitting a former Dartmouth College
offensive lineman. After meeting Zhejiang Party Secretary Xi Jinping on
Wednesday, Paulson pronounced him "the kind of guy who knows how to
get things over the goal line." Of feisty Vice Premier Wu Yi, he said: "She
comes to play every day."

Apart from his numerous trips here on Goldman's executive jet, Paulson
says the greatest influences upon his knowledge of China were
conversations with Lee Kuan Yew, the former prime minister of
Singapore, conservative Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-Shing and Goldman's
Chinese-born employees, some of whom survived the tumultuous
Cultural Revolution of the 1960s. "If you're traveling with them and have
any intellectual curiosity, you can learn a lot," he said.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/world/2006-09-22-paulson-cover-usat_x.htm


Quote:



Goldman officials readily acknowledge that the firm has managed --
usually together with one or two other major firms -- nearly every
important international securities offering by big Chinese companies
.

In 1997, the firm was lead manager for a $3 billion stock sale of the
country's major cellphone company -- the first issuance of shares by a
big, high-tech Chinese company to investors overseas. Another, similar-
size deal in which Goldman played the lead role was the 2000 sale of
shares in PetroChina, the nation's flagship oil company
. Just last week,
Goldman co-managed the $9.73 billion sale of shares in the Bank of
China
-- the world's biggest initial public offering in six years. Goldman
was also the first Western firm to be allowed to gain a controlling interest
in a Chinese investment bank
.

Paulson's role in negotiating those transactions was "very crucial," said
Robert D. Hormats, vice chairman of Goldman's international business,
adding that Paulson "really immersed himself in a lot of activities in
China." Those include serving as chairman of the advisory board of the
management school at Tsinghua University, one of the country's most
prestigious institutions.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/05/AR2006060501298.html


Quote:
3rd round of China-U.S. Strategic Economic Dialogue
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-12/13/content_7241625.htm
www.chinaview.cn 2007-12-13 14:09:21

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Fintan
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Joined: 18 Jan 2006
Posts: 8605

PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 4:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The media is full of talk about a 50-50 split in opinion on the Bailout,
compared to an avalanche of opposition before the first House vote.

This McClatchy report is closer to the truth:

Quote:
Thu, Oct. 02, 2008
House leaders confident bailout
bill will pass this time


By DAVE MONTGOMERY McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON -- Congressional leaders raced Thursday to round up
support for a financial-rescue bill on the eve of crucial Friday vote in the
House of Representatives, expressing cautious optimism that House
members will reverse themselves and pass the measure.

The Senate approved the bill by a lopsided 74-25 vote Wednesday night.
It was a revised version of the Bush administration's $700 billion Wall
Street bailout plan that the House rejected 228-205 on Monday. The
Senate bill retained the $700 billion bailout and added $110 billion in tax
breaks over 10 years to encourage more lawmakers to vote for it.....

Hoyer said that phone calls to his office were running 6-to-1 against the
bill before the House vote
, as angry taxpayers complained that they were
being asked to pay for damage wrought by excesses on Wall Street.

However, the public's attitude shifted after many constituents saw their
retirement funds hammered by the stock market drop, Hoyer said, with
phone calls running only 3-to-1 against the bill since the House vote.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/AP/story/710860.html

Even by that reading, Americans are 3 to 1 opposed to this Bailout.

Last time I checked, 75% was a huge majority.
As if that mattered.

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Fintan
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
BREAKDOWN APPROACHES CLIMAX

Jim Willie CB - October 1, 2008

The banking system breakdown is very far along, but still early. Remember USFed Chairman Bernanke stated over a year ago that the mortgage problem was contained. Try not to laugh. The bond crisis is absolute, broad, deep, and all-inclusive, enough to kill the USTreasurys after it kills the US banking system. The heart attack signals are with the LIBOR spreads over USTreasurys, the money market, the TED spread (Treasury versus EuroDollar), and short-term USTreasurys. Charts resemble heart attacks and EKG electro-cardiogram monitors. Many details appear in the October Hat Trick Letter report just posted. The bank runs have begun in earnest. Nevermind the big banks for a moment. The smaller ones are entering seizures. The small and medium sized cities are also entering seizures. Here are two stories, one about a city and another about the bank holiday coming.

This from a friend in Seattle: “I was talking to my neighbor last night. He is in finance in the county government, King County (Seattle). He said there are some very secretive budget talks being held, very hush, hush. Apparently, the county has lost around $200 million of taxpayer money in toxic paper investments, with huge implications on the budget. He says he is not privy to the details, but he is taking a 10-day vacation starting today, because he has nothing to do since everything is in flux.”

This from a friend in Atlanta with strong banking connections: “Reliable word that Bank of America branch managers just received a letter or memo from the USFed instructing them to perhaps be ready for a one-week universal shut-down of the banking system, including access to checking accounts, savings accounts and credit cards. Reliable word has it that BofA bank branches received a shipment of signs last week, reading “WE'RE SORRY, BUT DUE TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL, WE CANNOT BE OPEN AT THIS TIME.”

So the banks are in need of a respite, a break, a holiday. They need to shore up their positions. Economists and bankers avoid revealing the consequences of extended absence of short-term credit supply. Imagine all the supply chain DELIVERY routes being interrupted for lack of short-term credit, certain to interrupt the supply of food, gasoline, building materials, basic household wares, simple hardware, and more. The short-term credit would certainly also disrupt payroll streams for companies, inventory supply for retail chains, durable goods purchases by consumers (like washing machines & refrigerators), the maintenance of basic machinery (like cars, trucks, computer, communications), even cash dispensed at ATMachines.

BAILOUT BILL PASSAGE

The Senate passed the Wall Street bailout bill, by a 3:1 majority. Some sweeteners like tax cuts and raising the limit to $250k on individual accounts for bank depositors helped. Some people might think that finally the banking system can at last receive some meaningful fixes. Call me a killjoy, but this will accomplish next to nothing as a banking system remedy. It is more a paper seal to Wall Street corruption than to ANY solution. If passed by the House, as is likely, it puts an epitaph on the American badge of legitimacy. A decade of fraud has been underwritten, sanctioned, and sealed. Even foreigners might smile at the new & improved bill. Their impaired bonds can participate in the redemption process. The only trouble is they might have to accept hot shiny USTreasury Bonds in return, of certain questionable value.

Still the bill must be viewed as a giant paper net to catch a giant locomotive train, one that derailed and then went over the mountainside cliff 500 meters above and is hurtling downward with acceleration. Gravity is a bitch, and so is momentum! One should not doubt for a second that it will do much to halt the downward trajectory. One should remember that debt solutions accomplish nothing in providing remedy for debt abuse and damage inflicted by broken debt contraptions. Nothing is fixed, only accounts have been shifted and names have been changed. THE BANKING SYSTEM PROCEEDS ALONG ITS OWN CLEARLY DEFINED PATHOGENESIS, with great momentum and power, which no human devices can interrupt. The next shock will be why the bill has not fixed the banking system as Mini-Fuhrer Paulson claimed it would. The other next shock is why Wall Street will need another $700 billion within a year. The other other next shock is how much the AIG and Fannie Mae “INVESTMENTS” a la nationalization will each cost the USGovt conglomerate an unexpected extra $trillion. The bailout yesterday enables Wall Street executives to retire more comfortably, even as some seek asylum or face exile.

The irony of the lifted depositor insurance is that big financial conglomerates can now raid the private accounts worth over $100k now, with government coverage in the bankruptcy courts. The October Hat Trick Letter contains some multi-sided evidence of USFed open license to use subsidiary accounts toward the aid of liquidity strains. What constantly leaves me shaking my head is how intelligent people continue to attribute fair spirited motives to the system, when it resembles a crime syndicate more each year. The reason why it resembles one is that it IS a crime syndicate operating under the USGovt roof. There are three crime syndicates operating under the USGovt roof, the others identified in the report this month. Each has had a profound financial effect on the nation, as in killing its host.

One can make a fine balanced and credible argument that the Fannie Mae bailout package represented an aggregate parallel of the simple Trenton New Jersey home loan fraud. The parallels are argued, with conclusion being the USGovt bailout was tantamount to abandonment by the mafia gangsters, who walked away from the $250k loan on the $50 crack house dilapidated property. Parallels are disturbing, as Wall Street and USGovt players fill out the example carried to the aggregate. The other Fannie Mae fraud is the simple bond certificate counterfeit, just plain paper printing without bother of Wall Street involvement. That fraud helped to run up the total Fannie Mae fraud past the $1 trillion mark. Given the sleazy guys who ran Fannie Mae, and all the protection run for it by politicians averse to reform, the fraud was quite easy. Who would want to question a shiny Fannie bond, a device which powered the great housing boom?

FDIC AS NEW I-BANK RAIDER

A new role seems to have come to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. They are the newest brokers on Wall Street, the new investment bankers, raiders true to the name. They do not protect depositors any more than Christopher Cox at the SEC protects stock investors. The FDIC has minimal funds, most likely co-mingled with the USTreasury anyway, just like the Social Security Trust Fund. The measly $45 billion lying around in the FDIC fund would not cover more than one or two decent sized banks, or one Washington Mutual or one Wachovia. So what does Sheila Bair do in response? She defends Wall Street, avoids liquidation by dead banks, and steers them to the JPMorgan chop shop and slaughterhouse. A great arbitrage results, as JPMorgan obtains bond assets for nothing, and can sell them to a stupid captive customer, us taxpayers.

In doing so, several things happen:

1. JPMorgan obtains the entire corporate asset kit & kaboodle for next to nothing
2. deposits are used to help the JPM asset ratios
3. bond assets can be sold to the USGovt bailout fund
4. senior bond holders for the dead banks are screwed, receiving a pittance
5. dangerous credit derivatives are placed in the JPM Garbage Can
6. the Wall Street Consolidation Plan continues.

The Big 3 Banks are JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Bank of America. Just how on earth can Citigroup even consider acquiring Wachovia? Buy it with what? Citigroup is insolvent. That does not stop the Wall Street firms from spreading their cancer. Besides, King Cox has a plan, to remove ‘Mark to Market’ asset accounting rules. Poof! The US banks are solvent again. Only trouble is they become Walking Zombies. Couple this desperate policy change with short stock restrictions, and the Third World Finances label fits even better, from lack of credibility. The new Wall Street I-Bank is on the scene. The modern FDIC might make Michael Milken proud, the junk bond king from Drexel Burnham. By the way, he only served two of his ten years in prison. Wall Street does have its privilege. The Wall Street investment bank model is dead & buried, with the door slamming shut by Goldman Sachs changing its coat to read bank holding company.

The group likely to initiate lawsuits is the senior bond holders to the broken banks. They should have entered an orderly procedure led by the FDIC. They face ruin when they should salvage something. The FDIC sets up banks to be raped. The label of pimp is too generous and connotes too much respect. To think that Sheila Bair at the FDIC is being praised for her leadership lately is enough to make a bond holder vomit. These mergers are nothing but disguised ‘Chop Shop’ rapes. At least the FDIC receives fees. JPMorgan donated $1.9 billion to the FDIC cause. By the time the dust clears after the locomotive crashes, three giant hollow monoliths were be standing, a tribute to Manhattan, in the Big 3 Banks. Their glass and aluminum fittings might be in much better shape than the World Trade Center though. It is doubtful that they possess any gold bullion in basement vaults. Let’s hope the third of these buildings does not suffer a structural sympathy, only to collapse.

LOOMING TIME BOMBS

Clearly they are AIG with its raft of Credit Default Swaps, and Fannie Mae with its raft of mortgages and their bonds. Fannie also has a scad of Interest Rate Swaps. As explained in past Hat Trick Letter reports, the quarterly bills payable to JMPorgan and Goldman Sachs might be considerable on these swaps. The USGovt swallowed two really big ugly hairy hungry tapeworms, that will possibly each cost an extra $1 trillion in unplanned expenses. Actually, my guess is the figure might be conservative. A year ago, when clowns like Bernanke and harlots on Wall Street were estimating the entire mortgage fiasco would result in $100 to $200 billion losses, my figure was $1.5 to $2.0 trillion. As the time bombs go off, they will do so in dribs & drabs, actually giant dribs & giant drabs. The costs will take esteemed senators in the august body of the USCongress off guard.

An interesting thought came to me tonight as the Senate Bailout Bill was written. Actually, more sinister than interesting. The Fannie bill, the AIG bill, and the Wall Street omnibus bill might have been greased by private bribes. Imagine the hefty $138 billion paid to JPMorgan by the USFed, ostensibly from counterfeit Dept of Treasury hotmoney, during the Lehman Brothers failure and confusion, approved by Bankruptcy Court judge James Peck in Manhattan, all executed in pre-dawn during the weekend. Sorry, wanted to paint the background accurately but succinctly. If the 74 senators were each given $2 million in a basic traditional bribe, located safely in a Cayman Island account, then the total cost to JPMorgan would only be $148 million, in the neighborhood of 1 part in 1000 on that disgusting under-the-table handout of $138 billion. It makes good business sense in a day and age when rules mean nothing, when preserving the system is paramount, especially when BS bylines can be spouted about helping the common man.

RUN ON BANKS, RUN ON BONDS

Those talking perpetual campaign managers known as USCongressional members, they like to talk about “the fact of the matter” a lot, as thought they have some innate ability to recognize facts. Here are some facts. A broad and deep run is occurring on US banks, small, medium, large. Banks rely upon deposits and bank equity (stocks and bonds) to supply themselves with capital. The bank runs strip banks from their ability to continue operations, at a time when their stocks have cratered. Stock price declines of over 70% and 80% are common, the norm, not the exception. Insolvency plus illiquidity means bankruptcy, without benefit of time extensions. As Meredith Whitney (the intrepid bank analyst from Oppenheimer) said in a recent interview, “There are a ton of regional banks that also face a similar predicament.” She correctly forecasted much bank distress, and expects a flood of FDIC activity to deal with failing banks.

Europeans have also lost respect for the US financial leadership, public statements having been made by the German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck to the effect that the United States has lost its geopolitical leadership mantle. A powerful reversal in investment flow endangers the US bond markets. Private flow of money resulted in the movement of $92.9 billion out of the US in July, after $46.8 billion entered the nation in June. A profound new trend is in place, whereby the three major continents of North America, Europe, and Asia are bringing home money. With a US budget deficit easily eclipsing the $1 trillion mark this coming year, demands for USTreasury sales will be left wanting, as USTBonds will be left on the table. The money printing machines will be the main recourse, as US$ monetary inflation will enter at least one and maybe two new gears in higher usage.

THE RISK LIES WITH HIGHER USTBOND YIELDS OFFERED, OR LOWER USDOLLAR EXCHANGE RATES FORCED. Either way, foreign US$-based bondholders face big losses. The nationalization demands will quickly force the issue of USTreasury Bond default. Bear in mind that now 52.7% of USTreasury debt is held by foreigners, and that proportion is fast rising. At yearend 2007, a hefty $9.4 trillion in US$-based securities were in foreign hands, as in liquid assets, easily divested. Risk to foreigner reserve accounts grows. They recognize their risk of becoming bagholders of greatly damaged debt paper. Amidst this pressure and isolation, the US Federal Reserve might simply resign its contractor position with the USCongress. After all, their balance sheet is decimated. It is not unlimited. It does have creditors.

The gold price will respond, as the USDollar faces a trashing. On the other side of this storm, characterized paradoxically as a USDollar rally at a time of truly devastated fundamentals, the USDollar will get trashed. To this end, a shocking admission came from New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg. He is a bit of a maverick, speaking his mind. He actually stated, “The next cause for concern in the battered US economy is whether there will be buyers abroad for the nation’s billions in debt.”

USDOLLAR AT RISK, USFED RATE CUTS SOON?

The USDollar is at extreme high risk. Since its bounce in July, behavior is erratic, volatile, and fully dependent upon central banks and market rule changes. The US$ money supply had been steadily growing at a 15% growth rate, give or take. Expect it to surpass 20% soon, and the US$ to reflect the debased currency from a flood of supply. The United States will be the first nation to cut interest rates, from desperation financially and economically. Other nations will eventually follow, but not right away. The effect few talk about regarding the mammoth nationalization and bailouts underway is the powerful jump in price inflation, along with currency debasement. Both are inevitable, sure to lift the gold price in powerful steps. The isolation of the US in geopolitical circles, the utter shock at failed leadership witnessed the world over, the widely perceived national bankruptcy will translate into shunned USTreasury auctions and outright divestment of US$-based assets. The only buyers will be central banks. The USDollar is at very very very high risk of serious declines, exactly like the US stock markets.

A trump factor has entered the room. THE USDOLLAR & GOLD WILL SOON RESPOND TO THE FAILURE OF THE US FINANCIAL SYSTEM, WHICH COULD QUICKLY RESULT IN NATIONAL EMERGENCY, BANK HOLIDAY CLOSURES, AND TOTAL FRUSTRATION BY BANK LEADERS, AS NOTHING SUCCEEDS. The Wall Street bailout bill fixes nothing in bank system structure and integrity and function, as problems remain intact tragically. The United States controls the world reserve currency in the USDollar. In Hat Trick This late summer, my analysis stated that gold must make a difficult transition from an anti-US$ trade to a hedge against monetary inflation, a hedge against realized price inflation, and a hedge against geopolitical risk, even a national US banking collapse. Some movement has been made on the transition from the tunnel vision anti-US$ trade. One should keep focus on how the US official lending rate at 2.0% is more than 3% below the current suppressed Consumer Price Inflation rate. So money is actually free for those who can access that rate.

The USDollar increasingly is being defended by market interference mechanisms of the worst and most egregiously shameful order, such as a) restrictions to short financial stocks, even though they are insolvent and more illiquid by the week, b) calls to eliminate ‘Mark to Market’ accounting of bank assets, and c) the trusty Plunge Protection Team devices used to prop up stocks, bonds, and the US$ itself. The major currencies are all at risk actually. One contact with international connections recently wrote me, “The US$ will drop to 2.00 against the EUR not before long. And then the EUR will crash shortly thereafter.” Many fine analysts expect the USDollar to suffer a severe markdown as the recent US nationalizations and bailouts are fully digested. Their forecasts would coincide with the notion that the USTreasury Bond suffers a severe market interruption like a suspension or possible default, but then later the euro is victimized by new global gold-backed currencies. This is a very possible scenario.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/willie100208.html

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atm



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PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 11:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

An interesting (portentous?) article from 1988.

Quote:



Get Ready for the Phoenix


Source: Economist; 01/9/88, Vol. 306, pp 9-10

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb5037/is_198801/ai_n18324345


THIRTY years from now, Americans, Japanese, Europeans, and people in many other rich countries, and some relatively poor ones will probably be paying for their shopping with the same currency. Prices will be quoted not in dollars, yen or D-marks but in, let's say, the phoenix. The phoenix will be favoured by companies and shoppers because it will be more convenient than today's national currencies, which by then will seem a quaint cause of much disruption to economic life in the last twentieth century.


At the beginning of 1988 this appears an outlandish prediction. Proposals for eventual monetary union proliferated five and ten years ago, but they hardly envisaged the setbacks of 1987. The governments of the big economies tried to move an inch or two towards a more managed system of exchange rates - a logical preliminary, it might seem, to radical monetary reform. For lack of co-operation in their underlying economic policies they bungled it horribly, and provoked the rise in interest rates that brought on the stock market crash of October. These events have chastened exchange-rate reformers. The market crash taught them that the pretence of policy co-operation can be worse than nothing, and that until real co-operation is feasible (i.e., until governments surrender some economic sovereignty) further attempts to peg currencies will flounder.

But in spite of all the trouble governments have in reaching and (harder still) sticking to international agreements about macroeconomic policy, the conviction is growing that exchange rates cannot be left to themselves. Remember that the Louvre accord and its predecessor, the Plaza agreement of September 1985, were emergency measures to deal with a crisis of currency instability. Between 1983 and 1985 the dollar rose by 34% against the currencies of America's trading partners; since then it has fallen by 42%. Such changes have skewed the pattern of international comparative advantage more drastically in four years than underlying economic forces might do in a whole generation.

In the past few days the world's main central banks, fearing another dollar collapse, have again jointly intervened in the currency markets (see page 62). Market-loving ministers such as Britain's Mr. Nigel Lawson have been converted to the cause of exchange-rate stability. Japanese officials take seriously the idea of EMS-like schemes for the main industrial economies. Regardless of the Louvre's embarrassing failure, the conviction remains that something must be done about exchange rates.

Something will be, almost certainly in the course of 1988. And not long after the next currency agreement is signed it will go the same way as the last one. It will collapse. Governments are far from ready to subordinate their domestic objectives to the goal of international stability. Several more big exchange-rate upsets, a few more stockmarket crashes and probably a slump or two will be needed before politicians are willing to face squarely up to that choice. This points to a muddled sequence of emergency followed by a patch-up followed by emergency, stretching out far beyond 2018 - except for two things. As time passes, the damage caused by currency instability is gradually going to mount; and the very trends that will make it mount are making the utopia of monetary union feasible.


The new world economy


The biggest change in the world economy since the early 1970's is that flows of money have replaced trade in goods as the force that drives exchange rates. As a result of the relentless integration of the world's financial markets, differences in national economic policies can disturb interest rates (or expectations of future interest rates) only slightly, yet still call forth huge transfers of financial assets from one country to another. These transfers swamp the flow of trade revenues in their effect on the demand and supply for different currencies, and hence in their effect on exchange rates. As telecommunications technology continues to advance, these transactions will be cheaper and faster still. With unco-ordinated economic policies, currencies can get only more volatile.

Alongside that trend is another - of ever-expanding opportunities for international trade. This too is the gift of advancing technology. Falling transport costs will make it easier for countries thousands of miles apart to compete in each others' markets. The law of one price (that a good should cost the same everywhere, once prices are converted into a single currency) will increasingly assert itself. Politicians permitting, national economies will follow their financial markets - becoming ever more open to the outside world. This will apply to labour as much as to goods, partly thorough migration but also through technology's ability to separate the worker form the point at which he delivers his labour. Indian computer operators will be processing New Yorkers' paychecks.

In all these ways national economic boundaries are slowly dissolving. As the trend continues, the appeal of a currency union across at least the main industrial countries will seem irresistible to everybody except foreign-exchange traders and governments. In the phoenix zone, economic adjustment to shifts in relative prices would happen smoothly and automatically, rather as it does today between different regions within large economies (a brief on pages 74-75 explains how.) The absence of all currency risk would spur trade, investment and employment.

The phoenix zone would impose tight constraints on national governments. There would be no such thing, for instance, as a national monetary policy.

The world phoenix supply would be fixed by a new central bank, descended perhaps from the IMF.

The world inflation rate - and hence, within narrow margins, each national inflation rate- would be in its charge. Each country could use taxes and public spending to offset temporary falls in demand, but it would have to borrow rather than print money to finance its budget deficit. With no recourse to the inflation tax, governments and their creditors would be forced to judge their borrowing and lending plans more carefully than they do today. This means a big loss of economic sovereignty, but the trends that make the phoenix so appealing are taking that sovereignty away in any case. Even in a world of more-or-less floating exchange rates, individual governments have seen their policy independence checked by an unfriendly outside world.

As the next century approaches, the natural forces that are pushing the world towards economic integration will offer governments a broad choice. They can go with the flow, or they can build barricades. Preparing the way for the phoenix will mean fewer pretended agreements on policy and more real ones. It will mean allowing and then actively promoting the private-sector use of an international money alongside existing national monies. That would let people vote with their wallets for the eventual move to full currency union. The phoenix would probably start as a cocktail of national currencies, just as the Special Drawing Right is today. In time, though, its value against national currencies would cease to matter, because people would choose it for its convenience and the stability of its purchasing power.

The alternative - to preserve policymaking autonomy- would involve a new proliferation of truly draconian controls on trade and capital flows. This course offers governments a splendid time. They could manage exchange-rate movements, deploy monetary and fiscal policy without inhibition, and tackle the resulting bursts of inflation with prices and incomes polices. It is a growth-crippling prospect.

Pencil in the phoenix for around 2018
, and welcome it when it comes.

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kiwikeith



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PostPosted: Fri Oct 03, 2008 1:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The House is limiting e-mails from the public to prevent its websites from crashing due to the enormous amount of mail being submitted on the financial bailout bill.

The problems on the House website might not be resolved until the economic package was finalized.

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/house-limits-constituent-e-mails-to-prevent-crash-2008-09-30.html

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 03, 2008 2:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Senator Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif. received 91,000 phone calls & e-mails of which 85,000 were opposed to the bailout.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZFwRAfkV1g

But for the good of the country she voted yes.
What a patriot!

http://www.metroactive.com/feinstein/

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