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Audio: Secrets of the Ultimate Weatherman
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FaxMam



Joined: 12 Aug 2006
Posts: 139

PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2006 7:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Arrow

Last edited by FaxMam on Sat Mar 24, 2007 2:19 pm; edited 1 time in total
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RedMahna



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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 10:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Faxmam, I don't know, but I doubt Global Warming is the cause of snowstorms in Southern Cali, Texas and in Mexico.. as of Jan 20, 2007 (i realize your post is a few months old).
checking out your above link, looks interesting.
red

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Fintan
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2007 8:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Faxmam I don't think there's a valid way such lasers
could significantly alter weather. despite the power
lasers can generate, they are puny candles compared
to the sun, and would be insignificant.

Even if they could ionize the athmosphere, I can't
see a mechanism wherby they would have any effect.
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RedMahna



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PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2007 9:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i don't suppose the fact that all our politicians suck wind collectively might have some small effect?
(it would make a funny comic on an op-ed page after some global warming article...)

red

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mark1360



Joined: 05 May 2007
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PostPosted: Thu May 24, 2007 9:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

this man ken gives us nzers a bad name...augie is our man...and he hates global warming lovers...

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4064691a6571.html

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paradox



Joined: 11 Feb 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2007 7:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If we factor in the politician noise emission, sucking and blowing hot air, we just might have arrived at the ultimate weather and climate prediction tool.
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Fintan
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:19 pm    Post subject: Audio: The Ultimate wartherman Predicts 2010 Reply with quote

Quote:

The Beautiful Truth Show - 11th March, 2010

LISTEN:
Broadband Mp3 Audio
http://BreakForNews.com/audio/BeautifulTruth-10-03-11-dsl.mp3
Click to Play or Right-Click to 'Save As' and Download.

Dialup Mp3 Audio
http://BreakForNews.com/audio/BeautifulTruth-10-03-11-dialup.mp3
Click to Play or Right-Click to 'Save As' and Download.

Ken Ring's Recent Track Record

Quote:
Maverick forecaster Ken was right as rain

By Breda Heffernan - Monday August 24 2009

AN unorthodox weather watcher who uses the moon and the tides to create long-term forecasts is celebrating after his predictions for the Irish summer have largely come to pass.

New Zealander Ken Ring correctly predicted the summer's mini-heatwave at the start of June and was on the money when he calculated that July would be a washout.

His achievement is all the more remarkable as some of the experts have got their long-term forecasts spectacularly wrong. The UK Met Office was left with egg on its face after trumpeting a "barbecue summer" in April only for the UK to see its wettest July on record.

Mr Ring is an Auckland-based professional weather watcher and made his predictions about this summer's weather on Marian Finucane's show on RTE Radio 1.

While his novel means of forecasting have been greeted with some scepticism, he was largely on the mark.

"I think I've done quite well, or at least the farmers tell me so," he said. "Of course, weather forecasting is not an exact science and so the best we can come up with are trends that have a few days' leeway on either side. For instance, I did say summer in Ireland for 2009 was never going to be all that hot -- maximum temperatures may not exceed 25 degrees."

What Ken said:

June: Many areas will be dry for the first half and temperatures will be above 20C, unsettled for the second half.

July: Mainly wet month for all. Parts of the north, west and east will have chances of dry days only between July 12 and 17.

August: A wet month for all. The east has a chance of dry windows from August 4 to 9 and 21 to 25. The south will see some sun from 25 to 30.

What happened:

June: First week was largely dry and sunny with temperatures well above normal. Second week was cool and windy with occasionally heavy rain. Rest of the month was unsettled with showers and some thundery downpours.

July: Wettest July for over 50 years in many places. Very wet at some weather stations in the east and west on July 13 and 14, but July 12, 15, 16 and 17 saw practically no rain.

August: Started out very wet, particularly in the south. Almost a perfect score for August 4 to 9 in the east.

Link


Latest Sunspot Report from the
vigilant ham radio enthusiasts:


Quote:
Propagation Forecast Bulletin #9 de K7RA:

Seattle, WA March 5, 2010
To all radio amateurs

Two new sunspot groups appeared on March 1, numbered 1052 and 1053. The total number of sunspot groups appearing over the last month is eleven.

Looking at our 3-month moving average of daily sunspot numbers, the latest for December-January-February is 22.4, for the period centered on January. The average daily sunspot number for the month of February was 31. The fact that this is higher than the latest 3-month average is a welcome trend.

The current 3-month average centered on January 2010 is very close to the 3-month average centered on January 2007, which was 22.7. That moving average has not been as high since. In fact, the closest it has been was February 2007, at 18.5. It was all downhill from there, and that average was below 10 from September 2007 through October 2009. It now looks like we saw three minimums, which is why it was so easy to err when trying to locate the bottom. Several times we hit some low number, decided that things were improving, and then a few months later hit it again.

The three minimums were 2.97 in October 2007, 1.1 in August 2008, and 1.5 in March 2009.

The three month moving average centered on January 2008 through January 2010 was 8.5, 8.4, 8.4, 8.9, 4.9, 3.7, 2, 1.1, 2.5, 4.5, 4.4, 3.6, 2.2, 2, 1.5, 2, 4.2, 5.2, 4, 4, 4.6, 7.1, 10.2, 15.2 and 22.4.

The ARRL International SSB DX Contest is this weekend, and it isn't really certain whether there will be sunspots visible through the whole of the contest. Sunspot groups 1051, 1052 and 1053 will soon rotate over the Sun's western limb. Looking at images from the STEREO spacecraft ( http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/), there is a magnetically complex area visible in the upper left quadrant facing Earth, but no sunspot has emerged there. Looking beyond the horizon the only really active area (bright white contrasted against green) appears to be emerging from the far side blind spot in the southern hemisphere. That could be five days away from emergence over the eastern horizon.

The blind spot of the STEREO mission incrementally recedes. On March 1, 88.1% of the Sun was visible to the craft, on April 1, 88.5% should be visible, and 90% visibility will occur some time in June. For the first of December 2010, January 2011 and February 2011 visibility should be 97.4, 98.7 and 99.8%. After that, the two spacecraft continue their journey, but the blind spot shifts to the Earth-side of the Sun, which of course we can see directly.

Earlier this week the prediction for the weekend showed higher activity. Go to http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html and click on March 1. Note the solar flux values for today, tomorrow and Sunday (March 5-7) show predicted solar flux at 84, 86 and 90, with flux staying at 90 through March 13.

Now click on March 4, which was the latest report available by the time this bulletin was written early Friday morning, and for the same period it has shifted way down to 82 straight through March 12. You can go back to that site to get the updated forecast after 2000z (but often after 2100z) today, and on subsequent days.

The same forecast shows quiet geomagnetic conditions with planetary A index of 5 until March 15 and 16, when it rises slightly to 8 and 7. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions for March 5 through 11.

K9LA pointed out a problem with the description of effective sunspot numbers from nwra.com in last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP008.

At http://www.nwra.com/spawx/ssne24.html we see a plot of SSNe, or effective sunspot number, which is derived from multiple ionospheric sounders. The ionosonde data used is foF2, which is the critical frequency of the F2 layer. It is the maximum frequency that can be reflected back from the F2 layer by a vertically incident beam. The smoother heavy line in the upper SSNe graph uses 24 hours of foF2 data, and the lighter and less smooth line uses 6 hours of data. Using a longer period of data makes the 24 hour line smoother, because it behaves more like a moving average, responding less to short duration changes.

This page, http://www.nwra.com/spawx/ssne.html gives a more formal definition of the derivation of effective sunspot number. http://www.nwra.com/spawx/comp.html shows a comparison of SSNe, actual observed sunspot number, and SSNf, a sunspot number derived from the 10.7 cm solar flux. The formula toward the bottom shows * as multiplication, and SSNf**2 I believe means SSNf raised to the second power, a way of showing exponents using conventional characters.

The formula shows a relationship between solar flux and SSNf, but is not set up to solve for SSNf using solar flux. So to test it I entered some sunspot numbers into a spreadsheet, and then calculated 10.7 cm flux using the formula. The relationship came out roughly in line with the same values entered into W6ELprop, which always shows flux values when entering sunspot numbers, and sunspot numbers when flux values are used.

W6ELprop introduces a variation based on date, because of our elliptical orbit around the Sun. At http://tinyurl.com/ks8tvn you can see a column for observed solar flux, and another for adjusted solar flux. The adjusted value factors for variations due to Earth's orbit. Note certain dates when the adjusted and observed values are equal. Using those dates with W6ELprop and entering sunspot numbers results in flux values equal to data produced by the formula referenced above.

http://www.eham.net/articles/23487

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Jimbo



Joined: 11 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 4:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I learned something. Land as well as the sea fluxes because of the moon. I have always wondered how soil is created. I had a science teacher in junior high school who talked about how he'd have to clear his garden of rocks every year. I don't remember his explanation but it was a pickle I'd pondered from time to time. If someone asked me today how it was possible I'd give Ken's lunar land tide explanation.

With this land and sea flux thing going on I wonder what Ken Ring thinks about the expanding earth theory. Fintan, perhaps you can ask him in your next interview.
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MichaelC



Joined: 06 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 5:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks, Fintan.

I am not familiar with a lot of this but when Ken mentions astrology and esp jupiter and saturn I tune in.

Having studied Vedic (Indian Hindu) astrology for the last 15 years or so I know that when saturn and jupiter are in 'good' positions vis a vis my natal chart my life is good. When they are in 'bad' position I experience unpleasantness.

I don't really understand how it works but it seems that events in our lives are more or less reflected in the planetary arrnagements at our birth.
BTW, since he mentions only jupiter and saturn I suspect that he could also be into Vedic astrology, since it uses only the inner planets.
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GaryGo



Joined: 18 Nov 2008
Posts: 713

PostPosted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 12:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MichaelC wrote:
Thanks, Fintan.

I am not familiar with a lot of this but when Ken mentions astrology and esp jupiter and saturn I tune in.

Having studied Vedic (Indian Hindu) astrology for the last 15 years or so I know that when saturn and jupiter are in 'good' positions vis a vis my natal chart my life is good. When they are in 'bad' position I experience unpleasantness.

I don't really understand how it works but it seems that events in our lives are more or less reflected in the planetary arrnagements at our birth.
BTW, since he mentions only jupiter and saturn I suspect that he could also be into Vedic astrology, since it uses only the inner planets.


Is it not more to do with Mass Michael - maybe the others don't count cause their not big enough?
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skinters



Joined: 07 Sep 2009
Posts: 542

PostPosted: Sun Mar 14, 2010 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cracking Audio,funny as well in part's.

I looked at his site,but there don't seem to be anything covering the whole of the UK,so don't know if his 2010 prediction's on Ireland can be used as a pointer for the rest of the UK.
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Fintan
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Joined: 18 Jan 2006
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 21, 2010 11:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In our interview, Ken Ring said that the El Nino will be
extended in duration due to lunar/solar influences.

Looks like he might be right:

Quote:
The current El Niño: still hanging on

El Niño 2009-2010 just keeps hanging in there. Recent sea-level height data from the NASA/European Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2 oceanography satellite show that a large-scale, sustained weakening of trade winds in the western and central equatorial Pacific during late-January through February has triggered yet another strong, eastward-moving wave of warm water, known as a Kelvin wave.

Now in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, this warm wave appears as the large area of higher-than-normal sea surface heights (warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures) between 150 degrees west and 100 degrees west longitude. A series of similar, weaker events that began in June 2009 initially triggered and has sustained the present El Niño condition.

JPL oceanographer Bill Patzert says it’s too soon to know for sure, but he would not be surprised if this latest and largest Kelvin wave is the “last hurrah” for this long-lasting El Niño........

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/20/the-current-el-nino-still-hanging-on/

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